Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the outlook for a U.S. recession. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.”
Source: Bloomberg Sept. 30
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
"Money is power, & you ought to be reasonably ambitious to have it." —Russell H. Conwell, Temple Univ, 1877
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
read more »
Tweet
Facebook
Reddit
Digg this!
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:14 am
A great interview, Keene is just terrific in drawing people out, and knows his stuff. Lakshman is a good interview, and doesn’t mince many words.
The intimidating part for me:
1) this pattern of feeble growth interrupted by recessions is now established and Lakshman expects it to repeat,
2) his (cycle) estimates a recession without Greece being resolved, before the US budget is flagellated, and without any more surprises.
Given the low level of some economic indicators (housing, unemployment), about the same right now as the depths of the recession, we could end up going deeper this time than before. I would not want to try to get re-elected next year.
October 2nd, 2011 at 9:19 am
a recession = people buying less fluffy things*
a depression = people buying zero fluffy things (can’t afford requirements)
old people retire already > give the kids your job so they can buy fluffy things
why does a recession pull down inflation > because capitalism needs that consumption of fluffy stuff tidalflow
ps – who can be Toms apprentice? he looks like a geezer (still quick tho)
pss – Kudlow too (geezer)
October 2nd, 2011 at 9:38 am
Oh groan.
This reminds me of when Peter Schiff made the rounds as well.
October 3rd, 2011 at 12:54 am
This is the first time in several years ECRI & the TRENDLines Recession Indicator are in divergence. After
adding in this week’s economic releases, the TRI gauges Q3 & Q4 GDP both @ 2.0%, followed by a dip to
o.8% in April 2012 … en route to a business cycle high of 3.9% in 2014Q4.
Both metrics have incredible records. On Oct 27th BEA announces Q3 and we’ll find out who blew this call…
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm
October 3rd, 2011 at 2:31 am
Few weeks ago he was telling that his indicators are still not confirming recession. Today even a high school student can tell US is in recession.
~~~
BR: I doubt that . . .
October 3rd, 2011 at 6:26 am
Tried watching the CNBC interview as well, but that little twerp Ross-Sorkin is such an ignorant little cheerleader that I switched to this interview. I never thought I’d say it, but bring back Becky Quick. I’m sure Becky’s done giving Uncle Warren blowjobs by now.
October 3rd, 2011 at 8:19 am
BR:
In this video recorded on 9/3 http://www.marketwatch.com/video#!1E3ADEEA-D24C-4DFC-80D9-673F050764E3
he claims he is not making a new recession forecast. What has changed in three weeks? Number of protesters on Wall St.
~~~
BR: More data, market inputs, Europe, China ?
October 3rd, 2011 at 10:13 am
This guy is supposed to forecast ahead of others. Last week due to volatility, every trader in the world was thinking US is getting into recession. If Bloomberg interviewed me, I would have told them the same thing.
Maybe the paid subscribers of his newsletter get information ahead of others.
~~~
BR: Bingo!
October 3rd, 2011 at 1:39 pm
I had no idea that Jeff Goldblum’s brother was so smart.
October 4th, 2011 at 8:39 pm
@dina,
ECRI’s long term economic indicators peaked out in December 2010 as I’m to understand it, then ECRI has the short term indicators, one of the components in the short term indicators is the stock market, so thats an easy way to identify what has changed “in the last three weeks”
say what you will about ECRI, but it would seem when compared to others in the business of forecasting recessions they are about as good as it gets.
October 4th, 2011 at 11:32 pm
We never left the recession, qe1 & 2 were paper overs… I don’t need an “expert” telling me otherwise.
October 8th, 2011 at 2:56 am
@ben22
ECRI made several wrong calls before making one right call. I already provided a link. Here is another one he made in May.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/global-slowdown-hit-summer-even-u-says-achuthan-130920838.html
“The good news as the slowdown quickly approaches is that Achuthan does not believe another recession is headed our way.”
I used to trade based on stock/option newsletter recommendations. These guys will make noise when one of their stock recommendation returns 400%. They will not talk about their recommendations which lost money.
I don’t know how people believe ECRI’s recession forecast. As @TripleSigma mentioned, they do not even know that US has not come out of the first recession.
~~~
BR: Um, how is that wrong? You had a significant slowdown in economic data that began this summer.
After that, the data changed, and they changed their views.
October 8th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
@BR
Soros said US is in recession. Buffet said it is not in recession. If they are wrong they are going to accept it. But ECRI changes their opinion every three weeks/months. If US is in recession then they are going to tell us they are right. If there is no recession, they are going to tell us that we already told you so in May.
Do you believe their latest recession forecast? Will they come up with another forecast because of the 100K jobs data on friday?
October 9th, 2011 at 10:41 am
The greatest historical recession is in the anteroom.
All of the markets operate by saturation trading of the population of speculators participating in that particular market.
The operational laws of the countervailing markets: debt on the one hand – and assets including equities, commodities, and currencies on the other: follow rather precise trading patterns which on a long time unit basis of months, quarters and years – form patterns which define the limits of the money-debt-asset global interconnected macroeconomy.
In the long term time units of months, quarters, and years ….the money-debt-asset macroeconomy is at a transitional phase … most of transpiring the economic data and news events represent epiphenomena of the inter workings of the money-debt-asset system rather than the principal causal elements. For example, employment is high because in a macroeconomy saturated with debt and over valued assets, there is no demand and hence no impetus for a higher employment rate. The meetings of the IMF, German and French leadership are occurring in response to bad debt problems that the system has produced and can not sustain.
The largest asset market is the US debt market. On 7 October 2011 the thirty year US bond and ten year note completed a 20/51 day :: x/2.5x first and second fractal series with a characteristic nnnlinear gap on the minutely charts to its final 51 day terminal portion second fractal lower high interest rate. The gap was even observable on the daily charts.
From here US long term interest rates have a potential of an additional third fractal 39 days or :x/2.5x/2x :: 20/51/1 of 40 days of trending historically lower interest rates. (The historical all time low interest rate will likely be in less than 39 days.)
The macroeconomic nonlinear transition phase with a collapse in equities, commodities, gold, silver, and European currency valuations corresponds qualitatively with an impending cascading European debt default denominated in Euros with weighted Swiss Franc and somewhat British pound exposure.
Why didn’t the European collapse happen before> Because the self organizing macroeconomic clockwork progression of its asset valuation relative to each other had not completed their necessary patterns..
The self assembly deterministic operations of the debt-money-asset macroeconomy in terms of the time evolution of the macroeconomy’s asset valuations relative to each other has exquisite quantum patterned properties that define the system limits and confer on the macroeconomic system the characteristics of a hard science equal to physics, chemistry, and biology.
October 14th, 2011 at 12:51 am
Oh, the scandal of prediction! see Taleb’s piece on this “profane” endeavour. Anyway, if you predict, predict often. Only a rich, very rich society such as we have here could afford the luxury of supporting (and in style at that) these predictors.