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QOTD: The Illusion of Skill

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On October 21, 2011 @ 11:00 am In Finance,Philosophy,Psychology | Comments Disabled

Our quote of the day comes from an article in this Sunday’s NYT magazine, Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence [1] by Daniel Kahneman:

“The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [financial] industry. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. This is particularly true of statistical studies of performance, which provide general facts that people will ignore if they conflict with their personal experience.”

I find that, unfortunately, to be terribly true.

For those of you who may be unfamiliar with Kahneman [2], he is a professor at Princeton and Nobel laureate. He is notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, and behavioral economics.


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/10/qotd-the-illusion-of-skill/

URLs in this post:

[1] Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/magazine/dont-blink-the-hazards-of-confidence.html?pagewanted=all

[2] Kahneman: http://www.princeton.edu/~kahneman/

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