Surprising data point about Q4 market numbers:
From 1990-2010, the fourth Quarter has produced gains near 5% — that nets a return higher than the cumulative return first, second and third quarters combined (3.5%).
Consider it a variation of Sell in May . . .
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
The best way to keep money in perspective is to have some. —Louis Rukeyser
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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November 28th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Thanks Barry,
Any chance of showing the year-by-year details behind this vague Q4 average?
For instance, how about Q4 in the years 2000, 2007 and 2008?
Also, what are the average S&P 500 returns after each of these “good” Q4 readings? My guess is that these returns going out 1-5 years may be a bit inconsistent. For instance see after Q4 of 2001 — not so pretty.
Reminds me of the old adage, “Just make sure the light at the end of the tunnel is not a fast freight heading your way!”
In other words, let’s make sure “Da Bomb” is not prelude to “Da Bomb Bay Doors Are Open.”
End of month window dressing through Wednesday IMO.
Santa Rally TBD.
Thanks again for all your hard work and insights.
November 28th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
Sorry this is off topic, but I feel like I need to comment on the Effen banner ad at the top of your blog today: It expands if the mouse passes over it, even after asking it to close. This detracts and cheapens TBP, and is incredibly annoying.
I don’t mind the content of the ad, just the delivery mechanism.
November 28th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
OT, but seems very important, from WaPo:
Judge throws out SEC-Citigroup settlement
By David S. Hilzenrath, Updated: Monday, November 28, 1:30 PM
A federal judge Monday rejected the SEC’s plan to settle a major case against Citigroup and ordered the two sides to prepare for a trial.
In a powerful rebuke to a federal agency responsible for policing Wall Street, U.S. District Court Judge Jed S. Rakoff said that if the charges against Citigroup are true, the SEC settlement is too weak to hold the bank accountable..
Rakoff criticized the SEC’s decision to charge Citigroup with negligence instead of knowing or intentional fraud.
Rakoff, an outspoken critic of the Securities and Exchange Commission, also slammed the agency for following its standard practice of allowing defendants to settle charges without admitting or denying wrongdoing.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/judge-rejects-sec-citigroup-settlement/2011/11/28/gIQA8KsH5N_story.html?hpid=z1
November 28th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Bubblelicious….. Too many liquid assets looking for a home….
November 28th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
Great! 1131.42 * 1.0491 = 1186.97
So we should expect to end December about 8 points below current level if this is an average year.
Oh wait, We had the best October since 1932, the worst Thanksgiving week since 1932, eh never mind.
November 30th, 2011 at 7:38 pm
[...] I’ve been reading The Big Picture, and again, there was a discussion about seasonality in stock markets (see Fourth Quarter is Da Bomb). [...]