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Geez, it seems like we are doing this quite often lately, doesn’t it?

• Federal Reserve is requiring another round of stress tests;

• Germany failed to reach its maximum sales target of 6 billion euros ($8.04 billion) at a bund auction. Bids were for only 35% of 10 YR bunds available.

• China, the world’s 2nd largest economy, is slowing, as manufacturing slows and  home sales slide.

• EuroZone Industrial Orders for September fell the most in 3 years (-6.4% vs estimates of -2.7%)

•  The mining sector is falling on the proposed 30% tax by Australia on coal & iron ore profits.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

14 Responses to “Look Out Below, Thanksgiving Edition”

  1. dougc says:

    Hope I am wrong but it feels like 1987. There are huge problems and the general feeling is that there are simple solutions.
    MF Global a one of event?
    DEXIA a one of event?
    Germany will cave and ECB will bail out europe….Merkel is not Obama and ECB is not the FED.
    China a soft landing…..Belief in reality of reported figures.
    I am short SPY and QQQ and will stay that way until I read we are in a yr or two years

  2. Morph says:

    Give it time Barry. I’ve noticed two particular times that the markets just seem to get euphoric, no matter what the news: From 2-4 am, during the lowest possible futures volume, and 6-9 am, just in time to wipe out any red tape and start the day with a bullish attitude.

    I used to think that those who complained about “managed markets” were either sour grapes losers, or had perhaps a tad bit too much active imagination. But over the past two years I have come to count on these two time periods of “bullishness come hell or high water” and am actually surprised when it doesn’t happen.

    I watch it happen with regularity. Whatever the cause, you can count on a morning pre-market mystery rally before the open. Then things don’t look “quite as bad” at the open – if you know what I mean.

  3. BR,


    in the Video-clip (starts @~1:30)

    Jesse Ventura agrees, emphatically, with your POV ~”Congress should be traded on eBay..”

    as well, he has other ‘bon mots’ that People should take the Time to hear..

    #4 David Rosenberg, a senior economist at Gluskin Sheff in Toronto: “Lenders are finding it difficult to finance their day-to-day operations with short-term funding. This is a lot like 2008 but with more twists.”

    #16 Mark Mobius, the head of the emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management: “There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner”

    “…The Privy Council was not the king, and it was not the Parliament. It consisted of a dozen of the king’s most trusted advisers – some of whom were members of Parliament – who really ran the British government when we were its colonies; and the Privy Council met in secret. To assure that the new government here would not do to Americans what the British had done to the colonists, the Founders wrote into the Constitution the obligation of Congress to meet in public, to keep a public journal of all it does, and to be the only entity in the new government that can write laws, regulate behavior or tax events.

    Our representatives in the House and in the Senate have made a mockery of our Constitution. The secret supercommittee – around which have swirled all sorts of rumors about raising taxes and increasing regulations – has effectively become the Congress. Once it reports whatever it has agreed to, Congress cannot debate that report. Congress cannot publicly discuss that report. Congress cannot amend that report. Congress can only vote that report up or down. This modern-day Privy Council has robbed you of your representation in government and the transparency guaranteed by the Constitution…”

    “…Sirhan was tried and convicted. End of story, right?

    Not so fast. A crime is like a jigsaw puzzle. You can’t solve the puzzle by forcing a piece where it doesn’t belong. The theory that Sirhan killed Kennedy is an ill-fitting piece not supported by the physical evidence. Here are some facts that are not in dispute…”

  4. bda_guy says:

    Whatever happened to the days when markets would rally on the deals leading into a holiday?!

  5. bda_guy says:

    I wish there was a user edit button on comments posted!! What I meant to say was…

    Whatever happened to the days when markets would rally on the days leading into a holiday?!

  6. rktbrkr says:

    And how is the Fed not a Privy Council going beyond it’s charter on an ad-hoc basis to manage non-bank businesses and non US banks in secret and revealing these non legal activities only when forced to by FOIL lawsuits?

    Stress Test II unleashes QEIII?

    I think I read that Eurpean bank holding of soverign bonds were counted good as cash in their stress tests. Time to revisit a lot of worst case scenarios I think.

  7. rktbrkr says:

    Not much detail, the stress tests are limited to Big 6, I guess they’re the only ones big enough to crash the system (not sure if thats a valid assumption). They will be revised to submit any new capital plans by Jan. In this day and age why not a continuous monitoring of TBTF stress scores, if they don’t like it they can always downsize to NotTBTF

  8. Trevor says:

    Barry’s away from home for Thanksgiving, then? ;-)

  9. nofoulsontheplayground says:

    The daily charts still have a ways to go to get to oversold. The 30-min and 60-min charts are oversold, however, so we should see a rebound early this AM. However, we’re kind of in an elevator shaft as far as support is concerned. The 1157 SPX area is the .618 re-trace off the Oct. lows to the recent highs.

    Other than that, there’s not much in the way of support until the 1130 SPX area.

  10. Greg0658 says:

    maybe below concept/metric should be here:
    but ..
    wondering how much shoplifting via defaulting credit card purchases we will see this year .. churn rotate wave .. do we need clawback operations in this realm also ? somethings going on / I’m not exactly sure what .. or maybe the wave off is just what we need for churn .. Happy T-day (Thanksgiving/Turkey/Thurs)

  11. nofoulsontheplayground says:

    The NDX has a weekly island reversal off the recent highs.

    Islands typically get sunk, especially on indexes. We probably need to find support prior to sinking the island, however.

  12. Ted Kavadas says:

    RE: “Germany failed to reach its maximum sales target of 6 billion euros ($8.04 billion) at a bund auction. Bids were for only 35% of 10 YR bunds available.”

    IMHO this is highly notable and has potentially very significant ramifications.

    One of the potential ramifications, which should be of great concern to the U.S. debt situation, concerns the “appetite” for sovereign debt, which I discussed in this post:

  13. stevevan says:

    The 30% Australian tax on coal and iron ore is not a tax on ordianry profit. It’s a tax on “super profit” ie. profit above a certain ROE after deducting various things. So it’s only a tax that’s going to occur at high commodity prices. Commodity prices are now a lot lower than when the tax was first put forward a year ago so doubt the impact will be signficant and would have thought priced in long ago.