Yesterday we looked at 4 Major Secular Bear Markets.

Several people asked for an inflation adjusted version. Thanks to Lance Roberts of Street Talk Advisors, you will find that below:


Real Price S&P 500 with Shiller’s Data and recessions

click for larger chart

Category: Cycles, Inflation, Markets, Technical Analysis

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “Major Secular Bear Markets (Inflaion Adjusted)”

  1. fulldecent says:

    Do you have this chart available for S&P500 Total Return with the deflator you are using?

  2. maddog2020 says:

    WTF happened to the OWS post from Invictus? I was literally reading it a minute ago!

  3. GeorgeBurnsWasRight says:

    That is one ugly downtrending chart since the late 2000 peak. Talk about the aftermath of a blow off top.

  4. BenGraham says:

    Title says “secular” bears; looks like cyclical bears to me. Log scale would be better too. /end nitpicking

  5. NoKidding says:

    The whole-series trend line is up… if you’ve got 40 years to wait out the noise.

    Only sensible bet out there seems to be Euro short, but short vs what? BMWs with leverage?

  6. elizabeth192 says:

    Seconding the request for a logarithmic scale. Thanks.

  7. 4whatitsworth says:

    Let’s hope reversion to the mean does not play out any time soon or it is going to get ugly.

  8. rd says:

    Looks to me like we are in a healthy, low volatility market cycle.

    Seriously, one of my biggest concerns is that the stock market dividend yield has barely gone up since 2000 despite a significant decline in the inflation-adjusted value of stocks during that period. In the other major secular bears, dividend yields would end up at 6% or higher from lows around 3%. When re-invested at market lows, those dividends can provide serious pop to a portfolio value over the long-term, even during mammoth bear markets like the 30s.

    The realization of the very low total returns over the past decade or so because of the lack of dividends is beginning to show up in a major way in people’s portfolios which is probably one of the reasons that mutual funds are seeing cash outflows. The average investor probably can’t put his finger on why his total returns are so low, but knows that they are and that something is seriously wrong.

    “Death by a thousand cuts”

  9. nofoulsontheplayground says:

    The long term buy and hold investor would be wise to buy a break up of the falling resistance line out of the 2000 highs through the 2007 highs. Similar falling resistance lines have proved a prudent and conservative entry point in in the post 1929 and 1966 secular bear markets.

    The returns from a century ago show little in the way of price appreciation. However, if reinvested dividends are added, the rate of appreciation would change quite a bit.

    The S&P chart above suggests that if you bought the 1907 real high you’d be almost at break even in August 1982 adjusted for inflation. However, 75-years of reinvested dividends would change that return to something on the order of 4% to 5% real, annual return, which is a huge difference.

  10. joma says:

    maddog2020….I got the entire “The OWS Message in Pictures” post and made a .pdf file of it. Got no idea why it was pulled down either because it was really good info. Blogger might regret throwing them a bone???


    BR: Nothing so nefarious — it launched prematurely mid-edit; Happens occasionally.

    Its scheduled to publish at 7:30am under the name Meritocracy or Plutocracy ?

  11. Scott Teresi says:

    I wonder if there’s a web site out there that can take an image and stretch/squash it, so you can turn someone’s linear graph and turn it into a logarithmic one!