Oct Payrolls totaled 80k, 15k less than expected but the prior two months were revised up by a net 102k. The private sector added 104k, about in line with the ADP report and 21k below the today’s estimates. Sept private sector job gains in particular were revised to 191k vs the initial report of 137k. That’s the best since April. The unemployment rate fell to 9% from 9.1% and the U6 fell to 16.2% from 16.5% in Sept and unchanged with Aug as the household survey added 277k jobs and the labor force rose by 181k. The participation rate remained unchanged at 64.2%. Hours worked were unchanged at 34.3 and avg hourly earnings rose 1.8% y/o/y vs 1.9% in Sept and unfavorably compares to a near 4% CPI. Average duration of unemployment did fall to 39.4 weeks from 40.5. Mfr’g added 5k jobs after two months of job cuts. Construction shed 20k jobs. State and local govt’s cut 22k and the Federal govt cut 2k. Temp, retail, leisure, education/health, and financial sectors saw job gains. A boost to the Oct figure was the birth death model adding 102k jobs, 31k more than in Oct ’10. Bottom line, an 80k payroll gain compares with 126k avg in the 10 months ytd and the private sector gain of 104k is also below the 10 month avg ytd of 153k. Thus, we’re seeing jobs gains still but at a mediocre and uneven pace

Category: MacroNotes

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