Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Oct Retail Sales surprise to upside even after taking out gasoline sales
2) 6 month outlook in both NY and Philly mfr’g indexes point to optimism
3) NY mfr’g current outlook a touch better then est
4) Initial Jobless Claims fall to 388k, 7k less than expected and the 4 week avg drops to lowest since Apr
5) Multi family construction permits rises to most since Oct ’08 in response to growing landlord pricing power
6) NAHB home builder index rises 3 pts to 20, 2 pts better than forecast and the best since May ’10
7) CPI recedes to 3.5% y/o/y from 3.9% but oil now $10 above Oct avg and rents moving higher
8) Japan’s Q3 GDP rebounds 6% after 3 Q’s in a row of contraction


Negatives:

1) Yields jump in Spain, Italy, France, Belgium, Finland and the Netherlands
2) Euro zone Q3 GDP up just .6% annualized but in line
3) German ZEW 6 month outlook falls to lowest since Oct ’08
4) Euro basis swap jumps 20 bps to highest since Dec ’08, US$ 3 mo LIBOR approaching most expensive since July ’09 and swap spreads rise to levels last seen in May ’10
5) Even with mortgage rates just a few bps from multi decade lows, refi’s fall 12.2% to 4 week low and purchases fall 2.3% but have no fear, Evans and Dudley of the Fed said lower rates from here will help
6) Not So Super Committee charade toying around over $1.2T of deficit reduction OVER 10 yrs in the context of a $15T economy and $60T of unfunded liabilities today
7) UK unemployment rate rises to 8.3%, the most since 1996
8) I saw Guns n Roses last night, Axl went on at 11pm, I got 3 1/2 hrs of sleep, I’m tired.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (11/18/2011)”

  1. Molesworth says:

    Negative #6 seems a weird farce. Sad, angry and outraged.
    I believe in 2 days you’ll re-classify Negative #8 as an overall positive.

  2. Expat says:

    It’s a pretty sad state of affairs when #4 is positive. But, hey, unemployment is stable at 9% because we don’t count the “losers” who run out of benefits or just give up looking after three years. Oh, and all those PhD’s working at McDonalds don’t count either.

    Kinda like going hearing your doctor tell you, “Good news! Your cancer is spreading more slowly…because it has pretty much invaded your entire body.”

  3. JohnnyVee says:

    How as G&R?

  4. rd says:

    The StuporCommittee will be a positive. It is going to fully demonstrate how the current Congress is unable to execute its most basic function when given a clear mandate with definite consequences and a strict deadline. This demonstration may be sufficient to convince the American public that it is time to clean house on both sides of the aisle in both chambers next November.

  5. jeffg says:

    rd: The average American is as ignorant as their Congressman. They tend to like their Congressman (which is the only one they get to vote for) while disliking the others. So any hopes of 100+ new representatives is pretty much a pipe dream.

  6. NoKidding says:

    Initial Jobless Claims fall to 388k.
    If it starts drifting down toward 300k, I’ll buy that we’ve started a recovery for the first time since 2008.

  7. rktbrkr says:

    Re falling jobless claims. I’ve seen situations where organizations large and small cut support staff so severely that necessary paperwork is just stacked up unprocessed “we’ll get to that later”, if the organization is still in business eventually they have to bite the bullet and perform the support activity. I think that our “recovery” at this point.

  8. mathman says:

    Looks like “the message,” that the OWS movement isn’t supposedly real clear about, is getting the attention of the big lobbying firms:

    http://jonathanturley.org/2011/11/19/the-smell-of-corporatist-fear-smells-just-like-a-lobbyist-memo/#more-41738

    The Smell of Corporatist Fear, Smells Just Like . . . a Lobbyist Memo
    (from article) . . .

    Huffington Post obtained a copy of a memo being sent by high-powered Washington lobbying firm Clark, Lytle, Geduldig, Cranford to one of its major Wall Street clients over Thanksgiving. The four page memo was first revealed by MSNBC’s Chris Hayes, host of the show “Up with Chris Hayes“. The first two paragraphs of the memo are indicative of the mood and probably sets the tone for what many in the lobbying industry are having to admit as an inconvenient truth. Namely the truth that the OWS Movement is gaining traction for their cause and doing so in such a way that politicians are eventually going to be forced to put on the appearance of action in bringing the criminals on Wall Street to justice if not actually bring them to justice. The fear on behalf of the lobbyists and their Wall Street clients is palpable.