10 Friday AM Reads
Here are my morning reads:
• Jobless Rate “unexpectedly declines” “drops” “slips” to 8.6% (Bloomberg, NYT, WSJ)
• Contagion? What contagion? (Economist)
• Europe’s Problem Is Too Little Spending (NYT) see also ‘Austerity’ policy: Low-paid foot the bill (CNN)
• Credit Raters Join the Rated (WSJ)
• Ivy Endowments Thriving in Bear Market (Institutional Investor)
• Major Banks Face New Foreclosure Lawsuit (NYT) see also How Citi sank itself on the Fed’s watch (Reuters)
• Hank Paulson’s inside jobs (Reuters)
• Warning Signs from the Chinese Stock Market (Harvard Business Review)
• Tech Millionaire: ‘The Rich Aren’t Job Creators’ (Wealth Report)
• Debunked: Ridiculous claims of ‘pro-life’ bias in Siri (Tuaw)
What’s on your Nook Kindle Fire iPad ?
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December 2nd, 2011 at 10:08 am
“What’s on your Nook Kindle Fire iPad ?”
Via: BBC:
The science fiction novel Fahrenheit 451 has been published as an e-book despite its author’s dislike of the format.
Ray Bradbury previously claimed electronic books “smell like burned fuel”.
Mr Bradbury’s agent said the rights for the author’s book had been close to expiring and the publisher had insisted the new contract include e-book rights.
Experts said the news reflected the growing importance of e-formats.
Fahrenheit 451, first published in 1953, describes a dystopian future in which the US has outlawed reading and firemen burn books.
It has sold more than 10 million copies since publication.
‘Too many machines’
As late as last year, Mr Bradbury remained firmly opposed to the idea of his book appearing as a digital title….”
http://cryptogon.com/?p=26302
and, really, the whole page, http://cryptogon.com/ , is worth a ‘look-see’..
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:22 am
How to Remove Carrier IQ from Your Phone
For those of you that don’t know, Carrier IQ is a nearly undetectable piece of software that many major carriers have been loading on their Android phones to track everything you do. And by “everything,” I mean your location, you data usage, the sites you visit, the apps you download, and even the keystrokes of your text messages. Yeah, really uncool. It isn’t easy to dig it out of your phone, but ExtremeTech.com can show you how.
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/107427-carrier-iq-which-phones-are-infected-and-how-to-remove-it
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Julian Assange to Smartphone Users: You’re Screwed
If you think Carrier IQ is a huge violation of privacy, get ready to have your mind blown by the 287 documents released yesterday by WikiLeaks. Julian Assange doesn’t mince words: If you carry a smartphone you are “screwed.” There are a growing number of off-the-shelf software products that exist solely to gather information from mobile devices. Geek.com has the details.
http://www.geek.com/articles/mobile/julian-assange-to-iphone-blackberry-users-youre-screwed-2011121/
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Congress Steps into Carrier IQ Tracking Controversy
I’m not sure what scares me more, carriers installing secret rootkits on our phones to track our every move or Congress getting involved. We can only hope that it can appreciate the difference between legitimate consensual information collection and surreptitious data profiteering. Chloe Albanesius has the congressional reaction.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2397105,00.asp
from..”What’s New Now” e-mail newsletters from Ziff Davis
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:22 am
I am seeing a number of people retiring this year or announcing that they will retire next year. it would be interesting to see how much of the reduction in the labor force is due to retirements compared to normal.
Declining unemployment rate may just be a leading indicator of increasing stress on the pension/entitlement system.
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:33 am
Samsung Galaxy Tab– getting to be quite the fanboys & girls?ECB emergency lending pops
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5b7d1a50-1cc7-11e1-a134-00144feabdc0.html
Credit crunch
http://www.ifre.com/european-banks-dump-asian-loans/1618527.article
Helicopter air raid warning
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-02/euro-region-s-central-banks-seen-providing-up-to-270-billion-through-imf.html
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:43 am
A couple notes on that shale map. Some sources I’ve read suggest it runs about $7.00 to get natural gas out that’s selling for $3.50. That’s great for investors, right? Furthermore, it appears most fracking wells go dry after only a year, which is far different than conventionally drilled wells.
3-gap play today with the gap up in the NDX. Enjoy it while you can, as this is going to reverse down soon so a gap or two can get filled.
December 2nd, 2011 at 10:54 am
Thanks MarkEHoffer!!
nofoulsontheplayground: Id be VERY interested in the sources you quote – the froth surround the Dakota boom always gets me wondering ‘yea, great, but how long will it last?”
thanks.
December 2nd, 2011 at 11:00 am
Not much on the new Kindle Fire. It is a bit clunky and not intuitive, unless you are trying to buy a book from Amazon, then it works seamlessly.
I am looking at downloading books from my local library and will not buy a book unless I absolutely have to.
December 2nd, 2011 at 11:15 am
Here’s a post that discusses the recovery financials of fracked natural gas:
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-and-the-Bottom-of-the-Resource-Triangle.html
I believe the original source that had the recovery price for fracked natural gas at double the current price was from an analysis done on the excellent blog, The Oil Drum.
The Dakota boom you cite is primarily driven by oil. I believe they are pumping about 440,000 bbl/day of oil out of that area now.
December 2nd, 2011 at 11:16 am
“shale-bitches.jpg” … WTF ???? are you serious Barry ????? (or was this from zerohedge?)
Why Energy Journalism is so Bad
“Welcome to my hell. Let’s review a few of the common errors in energy journalism…”
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/energy-futurist/why-energy-journalism-is-so-bad/219
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Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7075
Is “shale oil” the answer to “peak oil”?
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7499
(shale – great for the PT Barnums, not so great for investors or thinking human beings)
December 2nd, 2011 at 11:18 am
simon johnson pretty much on target for Europe
http://baselinescenario.com/2011/12/01/the-huntsman-alternative/#more-9480
of course his appended huntsman praise isnt going to sit well in some circles
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:01 pm
A different take on the Siri controversy: http://amaditalks.tumblr.com/post/13513981784/siri
Siri can’t find an abortion clinic even if given the name of the business and the street address. Siri does know how to spell Duquesne Blvd though…hmmm
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Appreciate it nofoulsontheplayground – thanks much!
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Morning Joe’s new promo video — well done!
best commenter quote (so far) :
“Too bad they didn’t throw a shark into the mix for Mika to jump over on her epic morning run.”
http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-11-28/politics/30449199_1_mika-brzezinski-morning-joe-herman-cain
you show those bad boys how it’s done, Mika!
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:17 pm
Of course there is a way to avoid “tax the rich”. The “job creators” can raise the wages enough that more workers both participate in paying taxes and have discressionary income to create more demand.
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:28 pm
Shale Junkies and Newt Gingrich – Peas in a pod
“I often don’t bother arguing with the “Drill, Baby, drill” folks – the reason is that while I think they are misguided and their lack of understanding of the possibilities of US oil are embarassing, they also have a point – as we get further down the energy curve, most of our available energy resources will be exploited if it is economically viable to recover the oil or the gas. It simply will happen – environmental sensitivity will not be a major factor.
http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/2011/11/shocker_newt_gingerich_doesnt.php
December 2nd, 2011 at 12:30 pm
delusion part4. must be really strong drugs
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/journey-into-a-libertarian-future-part-iv-%E2%80%93-the-journey-into-a-libertarian-past.html
December 2nd, 2011 at 4:31 pm
The article linked above by nofoulsontheplayground (http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Natural-Gas-Prices-and-the-Bottom-of-the-Resource-Triangle.html) is very well informed and gives a sound picture of the major challenges facing the optimistic scenarios for US shale gas development.
Nonetheless, there is a long-term case to be made for such potential if we see trends now under way transform the historically domestic US gas market into a global one. The linchpin is liquefied natural gas (LNG), which until recently only seemed relevant to the US as an import commodity. The changes wrought by shale gas have shifted the discussion. The US is poised to begin exporting gas (LNG) from the Gulf Coast in 2015 through a terminal operated by Cheniere Energy, which is converting an existing receiving unit into a liquefaction and out-shipment facility. Others are starting to take a look at LNG export potential, which could certainly help our balance of trade and has the potential to stabilize the domestic gas market against seasonal swings. The Canadians are doing something similar, as a result of their large new shale gas plays, by converting the planned Kitimat LNG facility off British Columbia from imports to exports.
This has a long way to go to reach critical mass, whether in the US or Canada, but it has some powerful implications. Global gas demand is high and likely to remain so, driven by robust growth from emerging markets and increasing demand expected from Europe as it shifts from oil and nuclear energy. LNG has a major role to play in this entire picture. The growing gas resource estimates in North America to a large extent reflect the growth in the technology available to exploit them. And while there are new sustainability questions coming into play, it is also possible for the technology to adapt, improve and even achieve breakthroughs to meet those challenges.
The projection that natural gas prices in the US will remain low for a long time is probably sound. Assumptions that drillers will shut down most rigs in this type of price climate are less applicable than in the past. There is strong incentive to drill for oil, especially in highly prospective areas without the elevated risks of deepwater offshore provinces. The evidence is abundant in onshore hydrocarbon plays across much of the country. However, much of this drilling will not develop oil alone. Most of it has tended to be in gas plays where drillers target areas they believe will be “oily,” knowing that the higher prices for oil and natural gas liquids will improve their return. Inevitably, a lot of gas comes along with this. This keeps gas prices low. But it also provides strong incentive, with reduced risk of price volatility, for the US to shift energy demand away from coal and refined oil products toward natural gas. The environmental advantages of doing so are obvious.
Globally, a trend is emerging for contract natural gas prices to delink from oil and price on the basis of gas in spot and regional hub markets. The Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University recently published a report on shale gas and US national security that discusses this pricing development as part of a broader picture of the long-term global gas market.
http://bakerinstitute.org/publications/EF-pub-DOEShaleGas-07192011.pdf
Pages 11 and 31-32 of the report discuss the shift in price mechanism.
In sum, we are moving toward a globalized gas market in which North America will no longer be an island unto itself. It may take a considerable time for the US and Canada to make this shift, but it is in the works. Long-term assumptions about North American hydrocarbon resource development and the behavior of drillers and producers need to change accordingly.
December 2nd, 2011 at 5:55 pm
First of all, it is spelled “Fracing.” Yes it looks wrong, but the people who originally started saying are oilfield hands and aren’t too keen on spelling things correctly. Also, “fracking” is a curse word from a TV show. Please trust me on this; I frac for a living.
nofoulsontheplayground:
Shale gas is mostly economic. Some specific areas are not because of lower than expected production and higher than anticipated drilling costs. These areas are where formations are hot, hard, and high pressured – mainly the Haynesville. Using the production cost of any one formation to determine the economics of an entire field is not at all accurate.
The use it or lose it provision in most leases does cause some drilling before the first mmcf of gas is economic. However, most companies get around this by drilling multiples wells on a single pad and shutting in the ones that they don’t want to produce at the moment. Production falls or higher prices = open another well.
The Bakken is a pure oil play, and it is awesome. I would love to go back there. The wells come on at monster flow rates and seem to hold up well. The crude produced is also an interesting neon-green and smells exactly like diesel. Pickup trucks could probably run off of it.
SOP:
Very good article. See the Julia field for another example of how expensive and time consuming it is to produce a well in a proven field. Its made even more difficult when the lease is seized by an administration that also doesn’t understand oil.
http://fuelfix.com/blog/2011/08/25/steffy-new-front-in-drilling-fight/
December 2nd, 2011 at 8:46 pm
A funny, sarcastic, response to the Oil Shale article @ MarketWatch (jpg above)
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Dear Myra, (from your English teacher)
I just wanted to compliment you dear on your poignant use of the English language in your most recent publication: “Era of Energy Independence”.
The title uses vivid imagery to foreshadow the notion of a rising tide of energy abundance and unending independence from that nasty foreign oil. Well done dear.
Also in the body of the article you employ powerful adjectives like “shale is an abundant source of natural gas” to convey with alliterative attribution the underlying understanding that we are free at last, free at last, from the chains of those silly thermodynamic rules. Well done in that department as well darling dear.
It’s so important, so important, to exude confidence.
On thing for sure dear is you do do the deed in this following passage:
“One thing’s for sure: analysts don’t see an end to the supply glut and they’re not forecasting any sustained spikes in natural gas prices, at least not any time soon.”
Nicely played dear.
Most poetically yours,
Shirley Sure Simpleton, your English teacher
December 3rd, 2011 at 11:40 am
Oldfieldhippie,
Sorry I did not see your post last night.
Please consider joining the discussions at theoildrum.com. There are several oil/gas-patch people who contribute on a regular basis.