Confidence boosted by labor market improvement
The Dec Conference Board Consumer Confidence figure was 64.5, better than expectations of 58.9 and up from 55.2 in Nov. It’s the best level since April and was led by a 10 pt jump in the Expectations component while the Present Situation still rose a good 8.4 pts to the highest since Sept ’08. Encouragingly, those that said jobs were Plentiful rose to the most since Jan ’09 while those that said jobs were Hard To Get fell to the least since Jan ’09. There was also an improvement in the answers to the Business Conditions questions both currently and with the outlook. Those that plan to buy a home within 6 months rose a touch but to the most since May but those that plan to buy an auto fell to the lowest since Oct ’10. Those that plan on taking a vacation rose to the best in a year. One year inflation expectations fell to 5.4% from 5.6% to the lowest of the year and coincident with the lowest gasoline prices since Feb. Bottom line, while the move higher in confidence is good to see, especially around the holidays, at 64.5 it is still almost half the 10 yr high of 111.9 in July ’07 (of course just as everything was about to change). But, importantly there seems to have been an improvement in the labor market as seen in today’s answers and also in the level of initial jobless claims over the past 3 weeks.
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December 27th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Taken straight off Consumer Confidence Index website:
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 14.
So all this jubilant upbeat feelgood is “based on a probability-design random sample” ?? LMAO.. I love it
Question: Would you buy a home if the economy got better and banks started lending without 20% down and and checking you out under a microscope for months first to make sure that they have you by the Nads before you sign?
uh…..yea
Well hot damn we have a bright spot in the confidence horizon Skippy. Now go ask a few hundred more folks that same question and we will call it a “con” fidence survey . And its trusted because its brought to you by the same folks that rate TV shows. Do Neilsen boxes really exist??
This message brought to you by BULLSHIT…. “its the fuel of the new Paradigm.”
December 27th, 2011 at 1:32 pm
Peter – just wondering if you have spent any time considering Gallup’s daily poll of consumer discretionary spending. It only goes back to Jan ’08 but on a y-o-y basis it clearly shows this year to be weaker than last year. On a real basis (I assume it is in nominal dollars) it would be weaker still. Thoughts on its value?
http://www.gallup.com/poll/112723/Gallup-Daily-US-Consumer-Spending.aspx
December 27th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
How much of this is self-delusion by the Entrenched Elites, both financial and political? Has Europe’s financial situation changed? Have our deficits been reduced to zero? Is a reduction of our $15 Trillion in debt at hand? Has our government stopped printing money and buying it’s own debt? Did I miss these things?
No.
Common Sense from the Heartland – http://howardwemple.com