The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

I presented this afternoon to the National Association of State Treasurers. The room had all 50 State Treasurers, lots of Deputy and Asst Treasurers, and staff. Good crowd.

I took the podium around 1pm, with the Dow up nearly 200. By the time I finished, markets were nearly flat. The joke afterwards was that half way through my speech, all 50 Treasurers texted their home offices to hit the bid.

I actually wasn’t that negative, but I was quite realistic about how credit crises unwind over long periods of time. And, I told the treasurers that the consultants who tell them they should expect 8% blended returns are doing bad math — expected returns of 5% equities and 3% bonds are not to be added together, you must average them (its an accounting joke).

Anyway, you can see the presentation by clicking here.