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Retail Sales Disappoint on False Black Friday Reports

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On December 13, 2011 @ 10:28 am In Consumer Spending,Data Analysis | Comments Disabled

Last month, I published a post on the nonsense that is Black Friday sales (No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6% [1]). That evolved into a Washington Post article, Did Black Friday save the season? Beware the retail hype [2].

Today, we learn that many breathless forecasts from NRF to ShopperTrak were so much hot air and empty hype: Sales were flat to up only modestly. Total U.S. retail sales in November gained only 0.2%, following a 0.6% October. Even that month was revised downwards.

Retailers themselves may pay the price for their massive discounting: Not only might their quarterly earnings be affected by the margin pressure, but they continually train investors shoppers to hunt for discounts. Retail therapy and sport shopping are being replaced by extreme couponing and sites like Living Social and Groupon.

We are left to ponder what those folks who were lining up late at night at Wal-Mart and Best Buy for bargains were doing. No, it was not a sign of “shopping enthusiasm,” it was a sign of extreme economic distress. No one who can afford otherwise goes out Thanksgiving night to stand in the cold with a crowd, to fight the stampeding, pepper-spraying mob for a discounted X Box.

Here is your simple formula:

Thanksgiving Thursday night shopping + record food stamps = Bad Economy

Won’t someone please call the NRF and tell them to STF up?
>

See also:
Retail Sales in U.S. Climbed Less Than Forecast (Bloomberg [3])

U.S. retail sales rise slightly in November (Marketwatch [4])


Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/retail-sales-dissappoint-on-false-black-friday-reports/

URLs in this post:

[1] No, Black Friday Sales Were Not Up 16% (not even 6%: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/no-black-friday-sales-were-not-up-16-not-even-6/

[2] Did Black Friday save the season? Beware the retail hype: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/did-black-friday-save-the-season-beware-the-retail-hype/2011/11/29/gIQAfNCUMO_story.html

[3] Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-13/u-s-retail-sales-climb-less-than-forecast-at-slowest-pace-in-five-months.html

[4] Marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rise-slightly-in-november-2011-12-13

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