Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (12/16/2011)
Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) European bond yields fall across the board and across the curve (except Italian 10 yr)
2) Euro basis swap, euribor/ois spread down a touch on the week
3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index unexpectedly rises to 47.9 from 47
4) German ZEW 6 mo expectations outlook up slightly
5) Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s surprise to upside and 6 month outlook improves (what are they seeing?)
6) Initial Claims fall to 366k, the least since May ’08
7) CPI rate of change about in line
8) MBA said refi’s rose to 5 week high
9) Big demand for Treasury auctions of 3′s, 10′s and 30′s
10) No QE3, for now at least. Money printing just a drug and hangover will come anyway at some point
11) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g # rises to 49 from 47.7 but still below 50 for 5th month in past 6
Negatives:
1) Implementation of EU summit agreement easier said than done
2) Euro zone CPI runs 3% y/o/y for 3rd straight month
3) US CPI up 3.4% y/o/y headline, 2.2% core, core rate at most since Oct ’08
4) US retail sales in Nov light vs estimates
5) MBA said purchase apps fall to 4 week low
6) Nov IP unexpectedly falls .1% led by auto’s and nat gas output
7) Shanghai index falls another 4% on week, FDI down 9.8% in Nov, 1st drop since July ’09
8) Indian Sensex drops to lowest since Nov ’09 as Oct IP falls 5.1% vs forecast of .7% fall
9) Japanese Q4 Tankan mfr’g # falls to -4 from +2
10) Solid demand for Treasury’s 3′s, 10′s and 30′s, what does that say about the economic outlook?
11) FOR STOCK MARKETS ONLY, no QE from Fed and ECB
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December 16th, 2011 at 5:31 pm
Hey, by Comparison the US is throwing a party. Why not? With ZIRP and 3% inflation, market going sideways, real purchasing power and wealth are slowly being corroded. Buy stuff now while you are still employed, even if you get no wage increase. You won’t be able to in the future. As for deflation, it is not here, yet, to factor in.
December 16th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Watch out for a short covering in the EURUSD next week, that will spark a RISK ON xmas rally.
http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=422_the-markets-are-worn-out-yet-there-maybe-a-surprise-under-the-hood-2011-12
December 17th, 2011 at 4:08 am
TRI quantification of the past week’s forward-looking data suggests a 3.2% GDP pace in December will give way to a o.5% trough in April … en route to a robust 4.1% business cycle crest in 2014Q4 and an end-of-cycle 1.8% soft landing in 2017Q4.
The TRENDLines Recession Indicator uses proprietary heuristic algorithms to transform 16 economic data sets into an insightful GDP proxy for the 25-Qtr American business cycle. The uniqueness of its methodology minimizes false-positives & false-negatives.
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm
December 17th, 2011 at 7:10 am
Freddy Hutter: respectfully, sir – i don’t think 16 economic data sets is anywhere near enough to accurately predict the chaotic future we face now. It isn’t just economics – climate change will impact all your data sets if there isn’t enough food to go around, resulting in mass starvation; the effects of the nuclear fallout from Fukushima alone hasn’t been factored in (there are other concerns on this front); social upheaval is rampant is some key areas and on the horizon here, yet no one wants to think about that; the risks of a pandemic of some kind increases as climate-change impacts disease carrying insects and airborne viruses, as humanity continues to decimate the rainforests (exposing us to ancient/long hidden disease vectors), and as there are more and more humans subject to poverty and lack of affordable health care (especially preventive medicine/practices/conditions). With permafrost now melting and enormous geysers of methane spewing into the atmosphere from warming polar oceanic regions, our models of climate change are, if anything, underestimating the severity of the impacts it will have on vast global regions – including the southern states of the US (including large swaths of the farm belt) – with flooding, long-term drought and destructive tornadoes and hurricanes. Volcanic activity has been increasing of late and the chemical imbalances these large volumes of ash and gas cause on the atmosphere hasn’t been factored into these models, nor has the spraying of “chemtrails” or the effects of HAARP manipulation been accounted for. The depletion of vital resources (including potable water and top soil), peak oil, and the acidification of the ocean (effecting fish stocks) and our continuing pollution of the planet are all critical factors that no one is calculating and will most definitely have an impact on the continuation of our species, let alone making money from the corporations running their insensitive/unconcerned business models and ruining life on the planet.
i’d like to see the results of the matrix of differential equations modelling all these factors. Intuitively the solution looks like a zero sum outcome: some few people/corporations hold all the wealth for a short period of time and then the entire system falls apart and no one survives.
i think we need a new worldview.
December 17th, 2011 at 7:57 am
[...] Succinct summation of last week. [...]
December 17th, 2011 at 8:02 am
i see this is making the rounds this morning:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/50-economic-numbers-from-2011-that-are-almost-too-crazy-to-believe/comment-page-1#comment-91369
It’s cross-posted or talked about on many sites (as it should be) including zerohedge, financial armeggedon and Roberts Doom is Nigh blog.
December 17th, 2011 at 9:37 am
mathman .. you missed:
Vinny Gambini: BIOLOGICAL CLOCK – my career, your life, our marriage, and let me see, what else can we pile on? Is there any more SHIT we can pile on to the top of the outcome of this case? Is it possible?
Lisa: [pause] Maybe it was a bad time to bring it up.
My Cousin Vinny – 1992
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0104952/
smile anyway :-)
December 17th, 2011 at 11:25 am
And another 1% from Forbes explains how easy it is to solve poverty…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/quickerbettertech/2011/12/12/if-i-was-a-poor-black-kid/
And next, to play the flute, you blow in this end and move your fingers up and down on the other end.
And further tax cuts will solve all the other works problems … because those last tax cuts bush did weren’t quite enough I guess.
December 17th, 2011 at 12:07 pm
Here’s a story the Main Street Media won’t be covering, but, you should know.
Solar Panel Breakout: 41%!
http://www.energyboom.com/solar/semprius-achieves-41-percent-efficiency
Let your ROOF work for YOU.
December 18th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Boehner Says House G.O.P. Opposes Deal on Payroll Tax
“…Speaker John A. Boehner, who was among the Republican and Democratic leaders who on Friday had worked out a deal on the $33 billion package, did an about-face on Sunday and said he and other House Republicans were opposed to the temporary extension…”
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/19/us/politics/house-republicans-oppose-senate-deal-on-payroll-tax-cut-boehner-says.html
So the GOP likes tax cuts, ay?
And they always.. .ALWAYS say “watch your wallet” when a Democrat proposes a tax increase on the rich claiming, “watch your wallet, those tax hikes are will hit for you!”
But when given the same domain, the GOP can’t do a tax cut for working people.
December 18th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
mathman, I sincerely feel your pain. I too yearn for the good ol’e days. Remember, we couldn’t swim in Lake Erie, 1000 americans & canadians died each week in Vietnam & we all drove home drunk from good parties…