10 Monday AM Readers
Some reads to start your day:
• The Money Paradox: Why it’s easier to talk contrarian than to be contrarian (Barron’s)
• Why America’s Financial Future is Far Better Than Europe’s (Fox Business) see also Austerity Reigns Over Euro Zone as Crisis Deepens (NYT)
• Are Brokerage Accounts Safe? (WSJ)
• Kass: 15 Surprises for 2012 (TheStreet.com)
• Companies trim investment choices in 401(k)s (Marketwatch)
• In Flop of H.P. TouchPad, an Object Lesson for the Tech Sector (NYT)
• China, India Manufacturing Grows as Europe Struggles (Bloomberg) see also Yu Hua: In China, the Grievances Keep Coming (NYT)
• Eight Ways To Go Viral (TechCrunch)
• Here’s to a Very Good Year: 10 Wine Resolutions (WSJ)
• Are You Being Tracked? 8 Ways Your Privacy Is Being Eroded Online and Off (AlterNet)
What are you reading?
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Foreign (inbound) Investment by Nation
Source: WSJ
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January 2nd, 2012 at 8:47 am
Hmmmm, I seem especially well positioned if only 1/2 of Doug Kass’s predictions come true. However, if the economy and stock market pick up as he notes and the housing stuff is resolved, I don’t see a close Romney victory in November.
January 2nd, 2012 at 9:25 am
I found the WSJ article on brokerage account security interesting.
While brokerage accounts may be to a large extent protected from an MF situation, I have nagging worries about Stratfor-style hacks. Worse than the release of information would be the destruction of data, which is why I back up my on-line brokerage (and bank) accounts with a paper trail.
It’s not what you have, it’s what you retain in the potential minefield of paperless transactions.
January 2nd, 2012 at 9:47 am
BR mentioned:
• Kass: 15 Surprises for 2012 (TheStreet.com)
reply:
———-
A little long but worth the read. I’m on board for maybe 1/2 or more of his ideas. Mostly, I think his more rosy forecasts are a foreshadowing for 2013 and only starting in 2012. Considering I trashed many of his prior forecasts so enthusiastically, I felt compelled to pay compliments here. Many seem to be a natural progression of an economy that is seeing the adults take control from financial criminals, at least slowly on the margins.
January 2nd, 2012 at 10:37 am
Liked the Kass article. I see that you changed the link to direct to a readable format. The Street.com has about the most unreadable site I have seen. The noise on those pages is absurd. Can we just give them 10 clicks at the start and get something readable?
[ see you changed the link to a readable format. h
January 2nd, 2012 at 11:23 am
China grievances are a longstanding tradition. China is (to use the technical term) ginormous and culturally disparate. Think Europe in terms of cultural and language differences. Two imperial branches of government that unified it and which don’t have a parallel here were the civil service, which gave talented youth from provinces the opportunity to become officials by competitive examination regardless of social status; and imperial censors, which were like inspector generals to monitor the local government and the other branches of government. Petitions to the central government performed a function of checks and balances. The CCP is merely the latest dynasty and court of final appeal. Of course, corruption and abuse of power are longstanding traditions too.
January 2nd, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Barry, i think you should check out this truly prophetic interview of james goldsmith from 1994 – more than worth your time:
http://whataboutmarx.blogspot.com/2012/01/echoes-of-past-who-are-john-stapleton.html
January 2nd, 2012 at 12:44 pm
“… Internet as the tactical nuke of the digital age: “Cybercrime likely explodes exponentially as the Web is invaded by hackers.” Dead on, as serious hacking incidents are occurring with increased frequency…”
He said the NYSE would be hit…
”I think we see a specific attack on the NYSE”
http://www.peopleforchange.net/index.php?showtopic=35581
The I sea that there will be an increase in hacking from 2010 to 2011 is a no brainer. To say the NYSE will “attacked” is silly.
Nut-works like Stratfor who speil off the arm-chair prognostications pretending to be sophisticated without protecting their own clients are the problem….
http://m.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/dec/27/security-stratfor-hackers-credit-cards?cat=technology&type=article
Not sophisticated IT operations like NYSE.
January 2nd, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Marginal revolutionaries
The crisis and the blogosphere have opened mainstream economics up to new attack
http://www.economist.com/node/21542174
January 2nd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
BusinessWeek
December 22, 2011
A Look Back at 2011
An attempt to make sense of a year that made little
BLUNDERS
S&P downgrades the U.S. credit rating on the basis of false information–a $2 trillion error.
S.M. Krishna, India’s External Affairs Minister, gets three minutes into a speech at the United Nations before realizing he is reading a speech given earlier by his Portuguese counterpart, who had left it on the lectern.
Qantas Airways tweets: “What is your dream luxury inflight experience?”–while its fleet is grounded by a labor dispute. Among the least caustic, #qantasluxury replies: “getting a pilot, a plane, …baggage handlers”
Kenneth Cole (KCP)’s Twitter feed, commenting on the upheaval in Egypt: “Rumor is they heard our new spring collection is available.”
An Arizona utility worker damages a transmission line. Southern California suffers its biggest blackout ever.
British Cabinet Office Minister Oliver Letwin photographed dumping parliamentary papers, including letters from constituents, in public bins in St James’s Park.
Rick Perry, on national television, stumps himself, actually says, “Oops.”
…
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/2011-az-12222011.html
January 2nd, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Theexpertisin:
That is why I still get paper copies of my accounts still sent to me by snail mail. I don’t do a lot of trading or putting money in and out of the accounts so a quarterly paper copy is sufficient to provide a paper trail if something really blew up.
January 2nd, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Jay McInerney needed to add an 11th Wine Resolution:
11. Stop being a wine snob and try wines from outside of France and Germany.
January 2nd, 2012 at 6:38 pm
“…Eurozone is ’99% likely’ to break-up in next ten years…Greece is ‘pretty certain’ to leave the euro and Italy will likely do the same…”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2081220/Eurozone-collapse-start-year-99-chance-break-decade.html
January 2nd, 2012 at 6:46 pm
“…Despite criticism from many economists, though, most European governments are sticking to austerity plans, rejecting the Keynesian approach of economic stimulus favored by Washington after the financial crisis in 2008, in a bid to show investors they are serious about fiscal discipline…”
Ron Paulinomics for the Eurozone. Mitch McConnelletrics! It’s worked out well so far.
We need to bring back all the GOPers that gave us non-negotiated Medicare Part D.
Save us, I do not want a repeat if the Obama stock market performance!
January 2nd, 2012 at 6:48 pm
My 401-K plan was recently reviewed by an outside risk advisory firm, and our plan committee was advised to limit the investment options in order to reduce their liability from inappropriate investments made by the plan participants. Without our consent, many funds in our portfolio then underwent a “forced” transfer into a less specialized funds.
My cash position was therefore forced out of a more sophisticated and safe US-treasury-backed money-market fund in lieu of a general “cash-equivalent” MM Fund with what appears to be more credit/counterparty risk.
I explained (via email) to the fund management committee that if the “new” MM fund were to break the buck and an investor lost capital, while the US Treasury MM Fund did not, it seems to me that the group (and outside adviser) would be financially liable for having forced this transfer. Of course, my concerns were dismissed by both parties. I have kept a copy of all email correspondences on the matter.
January 2nd, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Re: Kass’ 15 predictions. If Israel attacks Iran there’s no way the US stock market is going to new highs, gas prices yes, stock prices no.
January 2nd, 2012 at 7:39 pm
and we’d be wishing oil would stop at $125. even if it ended up being a 24-hour “war” there would be an edge on the markets for months thereafter.
January 2nd, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Kass’ stock call is a bit outrageous imo simply because of oil. For SPX to hit new all time highs, oil would at LEAST retest $150 and there’s no way that doesn’t KILL margins, destroy what’s left of consumerism and cause mass loan defaults a la 2006 – 2009 all over again. It just doesn’t make sense unless we somehow decouple the leverage from commods to equities.
I’m not buying it. I see a retest of 1050 or lower, QE 3 announced in the Spring and a ramp back up to 1300. All with a much weaker Euro and flat to down commods.
January 3rd, 2012 at 8:14 am
I guess Kass is betting on a successful Israeli sneak attack on Iran similar to their sneak attack on Iraq many years ago, however it would be much more difficult because of the distance alone and Iran might be a bit more competent than Iraq military.