10 Monday PM Reads
By Barry Ritholtz - January 9th, 2012, 4:30PM
My afternoon train reading:
• More U.S. Part-Timers Find Full-Time Jobs (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street’s Big Banks Are the Real Threat to Our Economy (Fox News)
• QE3 or Not? (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch)
• Leading Indicators and the Risk of a Blindside Recession (Hussman Funds) see also How Austerity Is Killing Europe (NY Review of Books)
• Addiction to Prediction (Process Maximus)
• The boy wonder of the MF Global nightmare (Fortune)
• Americans Stumble on Math of Big Issues (WSJ) see also Americans and Innumeracy (The Monkey Cage)
• Montana Supreme Court Defies Citizens United Ruling (Law.com)
• How Many Stephen Colberts Are There? (NYT Mag)
• New Details Emerge On The Porsche 918 Spyder Hybrid Supercar (Motorauthority)
What are you reading?
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January 9th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
These complementary online exchanges from Glenn Greenwald and Matt Stoller about how an honest assessment of Ron Paul vs. Obama creates profound cognitive dissonance in the souls of “progressives” are extraordinary:
Matt Stoller
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/01/naked-capitalism-a-home-for-all-sorts-of-bircher-nonsense.html
Glenn Greenwald:
http://www.salon.com/2011/12/31/progressives_and_the_ron_paul_fallacies/singleton/
January 9th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
I think the “most people” portion of the plot above is pretty reasonable, but something about the “nerds” satisfaction plot bothers me.
I think it should logarithmically approach a limit rather than expanding exponentially.
As it is, it is more like a plot of “innumerates” vs “numerates” with the y’axis being “net worth” instead of “satisfaction.”
Though, that would significantly reduce the entertainment value.
January 9th, 2012 at 5:10 pm
http://english.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/01/scrubbed-mf-global-filing-resurfaces-at.html
January 9th, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Guess that makes me a nerd!
January 9th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
This caught my eye:
The Mathematical Case For Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade
Mike “Mish” Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis
http://www.businessinsider.com/mathematicall-structurally-high-unemployment-2012-1
“Statistically Impossible IFs.
Based on the data tables from the BLS that I posted at the top of this article, each of those dashed line in the above chart represents a statistically impossible IF.
The economy is certainly not going to average 472,000 jobs per month for two years. Nor will it add 321,000 jobs a month for six straight years. Finally, the economy is not going to add 208,000 jobs a month, every month, for the next 12 years.
Indeed, one cannot find any 10-year period in which the economy added that number of jobs. The best 10-year period I can find is 195,000 jobs per month from 1991-2000, overlapping decades by 1 year (during the internet boom with hugely falling interest rates and Greenspan’s foot on the gas pedal nearly every step of the way).
Fundamental Case for Structurally High Unemployment
At the height of the internet bubble with a nonsensical Y2K scare on top of that, the economy managed to gain 264,000 jobs a month.
At the height of the housing bubble in 2005, the economy added 208,000 jobs a month.
At the height of the commercial real estate bubble with massive store expansion, the economy added somewhere between 91,000 and 173,000 jobs per month depending on where you mark the peak.
Neither the housing boom, nor the commercial real estate boom is coming back. Nor is there going to be another internet revolution.
Moreover, debt levels are high and millions are trapped in their homes, unable to move. Boomers in retirement or headed for retirement have insufficient savings so one cannot expect a spending boom of any kind. Instead, one can expect boomers to draw down on their savings (assuming that have any savings).
In conclusion, the only way the unemployment rate can substantially decline from here is if millions more drop out of the labor force, thereby creating an even bigger “gap” between reality and the BLS’s alleged unemployment rate.”
January 9th, 2012 at 5:24 pm
All the Financial Suspects of 2008 are Nerds.
January 9th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
BR are you a nerd?
~~~
BR: former nerd, former chess whiz and competitive mathlete.
Then I decided it might be nice to get laid.
January 9th, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Chris Hedges: American Empire is Over
http://therealnews.com/t2/component/hwdvideoshare/?task=viewvideo&video_id=72718
January 9th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
and now for some thing different
http://www.miamiherald.com/2004/02/29/822880/the-gravity-of-skiing.html
January 9th, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Great piec on Boy Wonder.
On the topic of MF Global, Katoulis points out that the judge is holding them to a high standard regarding fraudulent conveyance, saying they need to prove a traceable fraudulent conveyance as opposed to a casual one..
As a lawyer, can you shed light on this(with regards to the legal standard).?
January 9th, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Ho Hum.
http://www.salon.com/2012/01/07/35_romney_endorsers_received_contributions_first/singleton/
January 9th, 2012 at 7:02 pm
At least we’re seeing a trend toward lower CEO pay. Those big numbers, at this point in history, were a little embarrassing.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-09/apple-ceo-cook-s-11-compensation-to-reach-378-million-with-stock-options.html
January 9th, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Re your afternoon train reading, Wall Street’s Big Banks Are the Real Threat to Our Economy (Fox News), if Obama were smart, he would grab this from Huntsman and start pounding this theme. The sooner the better. We can’t continue with banks that are too big to fail, and the only credible way of resolving this is to break them up so that they will no longer be too big. As Simon Johnson has repeatedly said, there is no global framework for “unwinding” these cross-border institutions in a financial emergency and no prospect for establishing such a framework over at least the next two decades. Although we don’t have the tools to address the failures of these banks, we do have the tools to address their size and should use them. By proposing this as a campaign strategy for Obama, it sounds as though I am giving merely a backhanded compliment to Huntsman. However, that is not the case. I admire him, although disagreeing with him on a number of issues. But he is right on the money in this instance. Nonetheless, I have to assume that no matter how much he surprises to the upside in New Hampshire, he has no chance of winning the Republican nomination. Hence, my earnest wish that Obama takes this up. His re-election is hardly assured, but only a fool would as yet count him out. The pushback he would get from the banks on this would be an electoral godsend. Much better to campaign on it and secure a mandate for doing it than to wait until after the election to pull it out in a crisis. Of course, a crisis could happen before the election. But better in that case to be already campaigning on it. Sadly, I see little chance of Obama going this route as long as Tim Geithner is Treasury Secretary. But with today’s departure of Bill Daley, we can hope, can’t we?
January 9th, 2012 at 7:13 pm
[...] Graph of life-sized literary license this afternoon from The Big Picture: [...]
January 9th, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Go Montana!
“While, as a member of this Court, I am bound to follow Citizens United, I do not have to agree with the [U.S.] Supreme Court’s decision,” Nelson wrote. “And, to be absolutely clear, I do not agree with it. For starters, the notion that corporations are disadvantaged in the political realm is unbelievable. Indeed, it has astounded most Americans. The truth is that corporations wield enormous power in Congress and in state legislatures. It is hard to tell where government ends and corporate America begins: the transition is seamless and overlapping.”
Rule of Law my ass. One for you, The Serfs, and the other, for “Them”.
January 9th, 2012 at 7:43 pm
another option instead of the Porshe http://www.bmw-i.com/en_ww/bmw-i8/
January 9th, 2012 at 7:58 pm
EPA fighting homeowners
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/09/supreme-court-hears-case-dream-house-stopped-by-epa/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+foxnews%2Fpolitics+%28Internal+-+Politics+-+Text%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher
January 9th, 2012 at 8:09 pm
http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=27063
January 9th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
While reading the intro blurbs about Colbert, a voice in my head — nay, a crowd in my head — started chanting “Ste-phen! Ste-phen! Ste-phen! …”
January 9th, 2012 at 9:01 pm
rosie backpedaling a bit on his recession call…
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/rosenberg-us-economy-risks/2012/01/09/id/423485
January 9th, 2012 at 10:09 pm
I’ve read some interesting things today butthe most amusing was an email from my father in which he quipped, “the last time this many people were following a white bronco, AC Cowlings was driving”.
January 9th, 2012 at 10:11 pm
pleadings of banksters?
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/01/quote-of-the-day-january-9-2011.html
January 9th, 2012 at 11:41 pm
The great part of being a nerd is you can be one without actually being right or particularly smart – it’s an act of love. It’s (barely) permitted gluttony.
January 10th, 2012 at 5:52 am
@slowkarma:
No sooner do you say that and “poof”:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-ceo-cook-received-stock-010040412.html
Apple CEO Cook received stock award worth $376 million
– don’t ya just hate when that happens?
~~~
BR: That does not vest for 5 years.