Through November 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices declined 1.3`% for both the 10- and 20-City Composites in November over October. For a second consecutive month, 19 of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease.

For year over year data, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted losses of -3.6% and -3.7% versus November 2010. These are worse than the -3.2% and -3.4% respective rates reported for October.

Click to enlarge:

More charts after the jump



Source:
Home Prices Continued to Decline in November 2011
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
New York, January 31, 2012

Category: Index/ETFs, Real Estate

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13 Responses to “Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (November 2011)”

  1. Ted Kavadas says:

    Many people believe that home price levels, as seen in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, are near or at a “price bottom” – and we will see gradual and slight price appreciation in the next few years. This belief is seen reflected in the Zillow December Home Price Expectation Survey, which features forecasts of 100+ forecasters.

    The belief that home prices are near or at a “bottom” is based on various factors…including price to income levels, home inventories, etc.

    However, I continue to believe that the home price levels have substantial downside potential, based on a number of factors. Various forecasters – many sophisticated – have almost continually been calling a “bottom” since the peak of the housing bubble – only to be proven wrong – which is a testament to how complex the housing market has become.

    For those interested, my latest post on housing, in which I summarize the Zillow December Home Price Expectation Survey, and comment upon my thoughts on the future direction of housing prices:

    http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2011/12/zillow-december-2011-home-price.html

  2. Northeaster says:

    Who would have thought that no longer having the ability to buy a $400k home on a $100k salary would result in a decline in housing markets?

    We have a ways to go.

  3. Concerned Neighbour says:

    Interest rates have been at the zero bound for years now, and thanks to Bernanke and co. will likely stay that way for “at least” another three years. Yet housing remains moribound, and according to these numbers, worsening. The bottom callers will be right eventually, but 1. that may not be for some time; and, 2. when it does bottom, there is no guarantee that prices will rebound quickly and/or swiftly.

    Really the only thing that is doing well in this economy is corporate profits, and we all know that’s due in large measure due to complete and total regulatory capture. The real question is whether those profits are sustainable, and as I’ve long argued, with ~10% fiscal deficits and unprecedented and reckless/short-sighted monetary policy, it is not.

    What we need are moves to strengthen and instill confidence in the consumer, not continue to lavish unneeded tax cuts/loopholes on the wealthy and corporations. And as a consumer, zero interest rates for as far as the eye can see does not instill confidence; in fact it does very much the opposite. It reeks of desperation.

    As a start, I would roll back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, and use that money to give the middle class a tax cut. It’s a no brainer policy that Obama should have proposed long ago. It’s revenue neutral, so the Republicans would have a hard time arguing against it.

  4. BennyProfane says:

    So, please explain to me why the homebuilders are a great stock to buy right now. Speak slowly please, I still don’t get it.

  5. Mike in Nola says:

    The NAR just needs to get laws passed around the country to keep house sale prices secret. That will put an end to all this negativity. There is a law in Houston to that effect and the local realtors can make stuff up without fear of contradiction. That’s why Houston, the 3rd or 4th largest metro area in the country, is not included in the Case Shiller numbers.

  6. Robespierre says:

    One of the biggest lies ever told to the American people was the house as investment. The house one lives in is not an investment. It is a durable good and Americans should think of it as such. Look at who pumps home as an investment: Banks, real state, home builders and mortgage originators. Gee none of them have a vested interest? You can easily find the crooks, charlatans and snake oils salesman by following the money. I still remember all these baby boomers who said my home is going to fund my retirement. I guess they though that they will be no other sellers?

  7. louiswi says:

    Although the charts aren’t labeled as such, it is pretty clear when homes went from shelters to personal ATM machines and it’s going to take a while to come back to shelter only price levels.

  8. [...] not anywhere people should be expecting ordinary year over year price appreciation. As the recent  Case Shiller data shows, this is still a market where despite record low mortgage interest rates, prices are falling. [...]

  9. GeorgeBurnsWasRight says:

    I know tying this into politics irritates many people, but you’d think voters would be interested in this issue since most of them own homes, which as we know is the largest investment of the middle class. Yet the issue gets ignored on the campaign trail, and few questions are asked about it in the debates.

    Leadership involves talking to people about important, tough issues. Candidates should either be proposing how to alleviate the problem or, alternately, telling people that this is a problem that the government can’t handle.

    I can only come up with a few possible explanations. Perhaps American voters no longer want politicians to address real issues in their campaigns. Perhaps there’s a general lack of leadership in our current batch of politicians. Or maybe the cynics are right, and the banks control our political system, and the banks don’t want anyone important talking about this issue.

  10. flocktard says:

    “When people phrase is that way, they say ‘we’ve reached the bottom.’ That suggests that we have the expectation of a major turning point right now. But I don’t see that. I don’t see any reason to think that prices are going to start heading up dramatically now. ”

    Well, I don’t see any reason to think that prices are starting to “head up DRAMATICALLY” either, but I have to believe that for most areas, with rates this low, and prices this far down, anyone who buys a house this year will be wetting his pants with laughter 10 years from now. There may be some more downside left, especially in the radioactive zones in the “sand states,” but I really don’t see prices heading much further down from here. People are going nuts over nationally averaged price declines of 1.3%. Get a grip, folks. Prices for houses sold on my block vary more than that.

    But people are looking at this index like they were buying options for Micron Technology. They pounce on it like it was Apple announcing their earnings.

    We’re not going to see any huge “pop” any time soon, or hopefully never, but I would think 95% of the excesses have been bled out of the market. Old lesson: real estate is not the most liquid investment out there, and price movements reflect that. I don’t know what all the hand wringing is about. We don’t WANT to go back to 2005.

  11. [...] a not anywhere people should be awaiting typical year over year cost appreciation. As a recent  Case Shiller data shows, this is still a marketplace where notwithstanding record low debt seductiveness rates, [...]

  12. Bob A says:

    Buy a house now and you can lock in the same monthly payment for the next 30 years.
    Good luck finding a lease with those terms.
    You really think rent is going to be the same 30 years from now as it is today? Really?

  13. bear_in_mind says:

    @Bob A said: “Buy a house now and you can lock in the same monthly payment for the next 30 years.”

    Well, that’s fine if you can afford the payments or don’t want/need to relocate for 10-30 years. If you happen to fall outside those parameters, you may find yourself in a pickle. Also, many urban regions have rent control to provide stability in the rent / lease marketplace, which you won’t find in the realm of home ownership.

    As many here (and elsewhere) have noted, unless median wages rebound, we’re seeing less a “bottom” than an easing in the rate of decline. Not to mention how homeowners sitting on sizable negative equity (est. over $1 trillion USD), much of which amounted to pulling future gains forward via mortgage equity withdrawals.
    Now the ATM is closed, how exactly are citizens going to absorb those “investment” losses without being a further drag on housing values?

    Lastly, in the unlikely scenario the Feds get serious about deficit reduction, the home mortgage deduction is liable to be targeted for reduction or elimination (esp. for owners of 2nd properties). That may be seen as a Black Swan event, but if economic stratification trends continue, I suspect it becomes more likely than not.