It would be easy for Lackshman Achuthan to back off his controversial recession forecast from last year. But “our call stands,” he says
ECRI Sticks to Recession Call, Even Amid Positive Signs
Source: CNBC.com
24 February 2012 2:09 PM ET
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
The best way to keep money in perspective is to have some. —Louis Rukeyser
"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine" say the French as consumer confidence in May rose to the highest since Nov '10 as they welcome and get excited about new Pres Hollande. Also, the French 10 yr bond yield touched the lowest on record this morning. June consumer confidence in Germany held at 5.7, just .2 pts off the highest since Mar '11. To the euro bond debate which is now taking on greater rhetoric with those with high bond yields wanting them and those with low ones saying no way, ECB member...
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February 25th, 2012 at 10:30 am
I disagree, a mea culpa now would be the hard choice. Since most of the firm’s reputational equity was wagered in September when Lak made his unequivocal recession call, there’s nothing left to lose by sticking with the call at this point.
February 25th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
A Captain goes down with the ship.
February 25th, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Oh my goodness… Andrew Ross Sorkin just about shat the bed again over “Dr. Doom” Achuthan. At least this time, he and Kernan shut their pieholes long enough to LISTEN to Lakshman’s analysis, but they still seemed dumbstruck by the facts. Maybe CNBC should roll a clip of Colonel Jessup’s “You Can’t Handle The Truth” speech from A Few Good Men each time they introduce Mr. Achuthan.
Would be curious to hear Mr. Ritholtz’s opinion on: 1) Where oil prices will peak; and 2) When folks should pull the rip-cord on this rally. I know, “Don’t fight the tape” and concede this rally could easily run the duration of the year, but sounds like it’s time for retail investors to enter the market and begin building the final leg of this rally.
February 26th, 2012 at 2:21 am
The scandal of prediction…
February 26th, 2012 at 9:10 am
Election year for an incumbent. That is all one needs to know.
February 26th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Americans are such team players. Look at Sorkin in this video, clearly his team is in Office and he’s pulling for them. Never mind the fact that Presidents don’t stimulate economies or create real jobs… it’s Red vs Blue, Donkey vs Elephants, go team go!
America is the spectator economy, just sit back and watch it happen on TV. Let China work, the Fed create money, and the shills cheer-lead while I sit on my couch and critique the whole thing!
At least if you’re going to be a spectator, do it like Londoners do, do it in an old pub with beers and comedy:
http://maxkeiser.com/2012/02/26/max-keisers-stand-up-rage-at-the-kings-head-london/
February 26th, 2012 at 9:56 pm
This interview marks the first effort by Lakshman Achuthan at revisionism. In his Autumn interviews he was quite clear to say an NBER defined Recession had commenced between Sept 23 & Oct 7 2011. And, it would be confirmed by mid-2012 at latest in case Q1 was positive GDP. A negative Q4 & Q2 would meet the definition and would be confirmed by BEA stats at the end of July.
Today he says it may start mid 2012. Sorry to say, but the guy is a liar.
The TRI has consistently shown since July 2011 that Q1 would be the worst upcoming quarter. Latest stuff lets me stand by this. TRI quantification of forward-looking economic data releases over the past weeks suggests GDP will shake off a slip to a o.8% pace in April and surge to 2.9% by October.
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm
February 27th, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Lakshman makes a strong case.
“When you look at the definitive hard data that is used to officially date business cycle recessions, it has been getting worse not better despite what the consensus view of an improving economy has been.”
Coincident Indicators:
1. GDP growth, year over yet peaked in early 2010 and falls down to 1.5% by Q2 of 2011 and has flat lined essentially since then.
2. Personal income growth down
3. Sales growth down
4. Industrial production growth year over year down, and as of January it is at a 22-month low
“You put all this — you put it into a coincident index of the U.S. economy and if you look at year-over-year growth of that index, it’s now at a 21-month low…”
“You haven’t had a decline like that in the past 50 years without recession following in short order.”