Chicago Fed Letter. “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate,” by Daniel Aaronson, Jonathan Davis and Luojia Hu. March 2012, Number 296. (PDF)
Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Federal Reserve, Think Tank
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Denninger’s response
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2862128
And another…..
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=201689
Shakespeare said “…doth protest too much”.
Lots of disclaimers and explanations on this statistical issue.
Even if they retired all at once or slowly, it’s a tipping point model where 1 person retiring removes like .3 units of tax payments and turns into 1.0 units of benefits. I may be wrong, but I suspect a person moving from revenue generator to benefits receiver is not a 1:1 exchange, it’s probably a big net negative.
Welcome to the Great White concert – wait til you see our pyrotechnics show!!!
The second part may well be boomers retiring because they have no other option. If you are 65 and have lost your job, there is a dearth of new opportunities.
For a lesson in how this all plays out, see today’s Japan vs the Japan of 30 years ago.
Where’s the beef? 25-54 cohort still in downtrend – is the upturn projected sometime in future for this cohort based on anything other than the fact that they can’t imagine things actually getting worse?
Oh this will just give Washington more ammo to take apart Social security and Medicare, so just wait until the fireworks hit this fan!!
Now, THAT”s some math to sink one’s teeth into. Thanks, Bar!