The Big Picture - Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Technology, and Digital Media

The wait on Greece is now really irritating and the lack of conclusion with the negotiations is clear evidence that Greece is still not satisfying the demands of the EU. European Finance Ministers meet again on Monday and Juncker says he’s confident a decision will be made then. In the mean time, the iTraxx European Financial 5 yr CDS is wider by another 6 bps to 250 bps, up from 206 bps just a week ago and the highest in 4 weeks, due in part to the Moody’s call today on global banks. But also, the broad European credit CDS is at the widest in 3 weeks and Greek stocks are down 2.5% after falling 5% yesterday. Likely not a coincidence, copper is at a 4 week low. Portugal’s Q4 unemployment rate rose to 14% from 12.4%, the highest since at least 1998. Spain sold 3 debt issues with maturities out to ’19 at an amount a bit above their target. UK consumer confidence was a bright spot, rising to the best since Aug and 7 pts better than expected. In Asia, Singapore confirmed an early estimate in Jan that their economy contracted in Q4 from Q3. Foreign Direct Investment in China in Jan fell .3% y/o/y, the 3rd month in a row of declines. In the US, capturing yesterday’s equity selloff, the always fickle individual investor sentiment got less bullish with bulls falling to 42.7 v 51.7 while bears rose to 26.6 from 20.2.