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Look Out Below, Banks/Greece/Earnings Edition

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By Barry Ritholtz - February 10th, 2012, 6:57AM

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Early relief that we can finally put the Greek drama behind us morphed into a European markets sell off. EU finance ministers are still holding back final approval of yet another rescue package. Greece’s commitments to get their fiscal house in order are leading to frustration with the country’s bickering politicians.

In Asia, continuing signs of the slowing China economy added to concerns. Some China Bears have been forecasting a crash, and the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets have performed poorly the past few years — peaking near 32,000 in September 2008, diving to March 2009 low of 11,500. The Hang Seng is still off by 33%, hovering around 21,000.

Is this a consolidation phase, or the beginning of the end of the bull market? I am positioned for the former, but cognizant of the potential for the  latter.

More shortly . . .

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Category: Markets.

Comments

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Look Out Below, Banks/Greece/Earnings Edition”

  1. HEHEHE Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 7:55 am

    End of the run. What’s point being long here? Max upside is 10%. Last few weeks have been up on little volume. Last time we were at 1500 S&P the unemployment rate was 5% and there was still a housing bubble. Granted the Fed has made enough money to pump things up that high but there’s no fundamentals supporting that high a price. Plus the chart makes a nice triple top here and we all like charts.

  2. Ted Kavadas Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 8:52 am

    RE: “Is this a consolidation phase, or the beginning of the end of the bull market?”

    I believe that we saw the stock market “top” yesterday with the S&P500 reaching 1354.22, and wrote about it on my blog Wednesday when the S&P500 was at 1350.

    There have recently been a variety of worrisome technical and sentiment issues in the stock market. For those interested, here is my blog post of Monday in which I discuss those issues:

    http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2012/02/notable-technical-and-sentiment.html

  3. Mark E Hoffer Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 9:07 am

    SPY v. GLD (1 year)

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=SPY&x=0&y=0&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F10%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=GLD&comp=GLD&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12

    (3 years)

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=SPY&time=10&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F10%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=GLD&comp=GLD&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=35&y=11&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12

    (10 years)

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=SPY&time=13&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F10%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=GLD&comp=GLD&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&x=22&y=18&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=12

    nominal Price Gains (in Equities) are better than Soma, or Instant Smile..

  4. CANDollar Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 9:59 am

    SPY vs GLD is a metric to weigh confidence in Bernanke.

  5. S J Morton Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 10:08 am

    Take a look at China M1, released last night:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/china-m1-hits-bottom-digs

    I’m with you on the strategy but suspect it’ll be longer term than just a blip. I’m with the Chanos Jim, not the Rogers Jim.

  6. herewegoagain Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 11:41 am

    I’m easily seduced by symmetry so have become enamored with the 5-2-5-2 pattern.

    1995-2000 five year roaring bull
    2000-2002 two down
    2002-2007 five up
    2007-2009 two down
    2009-2014 five up?
    2014-2016 final collapse and capitulation, with even the pros afraid to own stocks.
    And a new secular bull market begins.

  7. constantnormal Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 1:12 pm

    @herewegoagain

    I like your pattern, but prefer some cracks in my symmetry … how about a 5-2-4-3 pattern?

  8. clipb Says:
    February 10th, 2012 at 7:24 pm

    link to a shanghai chart. peak was in 2007 and it looks a lot like the nasd since 2000 and the nikkei since 1989.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=shanghai&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=12

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