Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Jan Payroll gains show big upside surprise of 243k, about 100k more than expected, unemployment rate falls to 8.3%

2) ISM services index rises to best since Feb ’11

3) ISM mfr’g up 1 pt but touch less than expected

4) Jan vehicle sales at 14.1mm is best since clunker month in Aug ’09 and the most since May ’08 before that

5) US savings rate rises to 4% from 3.5%

6) Initial Jobless Claims fall 12k

7) Amount of Germans unemployed fall again, rate at 6.7%

8) UK mfr’g and services PMI figures both rise

9) Final euro zone mfr’g and services PMI in line with initial

10) Portuguese bond yields fall from highs, Italian yields lower too with Spain flat

11)China mfr’g PMI stays above 50, Taiwan and South Korea rise but remain below 50

12) India’s mfr’g and services PMI’s both jump

Negatives:

1) US Jan Consumer Confidence falls almost 4 pts to 61.1, well below expectations of 68 as labor market answers soften and those that plan to buy a home falls to lowest since Aug and those that plan to buy a car down at lowest since Oct ’10

2) CS home price index falls to lowest since Feb ’03

3) MBA said refi’s fell 3.6% and purchase apps were down 1.7%

4) Canada’s Jan jobs report disappoints

5) China PMI services index falls to 52.9 from 56, the 2nd lowest since Feb ’11

6) Taiwan’s economy in a recession after Q4 contraction q/o/q

7) Greek debt discussions for another week are hours away from wrapping up

8) Amount of LTRO funds from ECB continue to be redeposited with the ECB

9) Giants/Pats Super Bowl again? How many more tortuous years will I have as a Jets fan?

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

18 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (02/03/12)”

  1. louis says:

    How many more tortuous years will I have as a Jets fan?

    No easy solutions in Jet land, you could go the stern coach route (Cowher) or roll the dice for the next couple with-

    Trade for Peyton Manning. Brother against brother and Peyton can go after the Colts.

  2. louiswi says:

    I can help you with that Jets fan business. What ever would possess anyone to be a fan of one particular team? Not likely there are any Jets players from New York and few live there. Think Packers where not only are no packers players living in Green Bay but none were born there. Also, in a few years the team you thought was yours has been broken up and the players sold off to the highest bidder.
    Do what I do. I change teams frequently. Green Bay early on in the season but changed several times since the playoffs. I’m down to two teams now and am confidant my team will win the SuperBowl. I can say this because my team has won the SuperBowl every year since inception.
    I treat my equity investments the same way, by the way.

  3. TomL says:

    NY AG Schneiderman sues banks over MERS. BoA, JPMChase, WF and MERSCORP named as defendants.

    Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

  4. willid3 says:

    the real new age of ‘entitlement’. only this time its executives
    just because you ran a company into the ground, and into bankruptcy isn’t an excuse to not pay what they they think they are worth. in the old days, the judge would terminate the CEO and others, and some times the executives would even commit suicide. not today, today they just have to have millions in bonuses. and they have to have their pensions too. but every other employees benefits and pay can be cut or terminated without a qualm. and before some one mentions that stockholders have a say in this (before the bankruptcy), take a look at the list of companies that actually ‘allow’ them to have any say on pay.

    its a very small list

    executive pay is based on compensation experts (hired by management) and some creative surveys and the scam that they would leave and the company would fail (in bankruptcy isn’t that what it did?). and just where would they go if US companies didn’t have this? The europeans pay less, and Japan does too.
    so just where would they go? and can we help them go there?

    http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/02/03/3709502/the-new-age-of-entitlement.html

  5. carleric says:

    NO argument from me about overcompensated American management. They are overpaid, overfed, over protected from paying for failures – of which there are very many. Can anyone imagine Bob Nardelli being employed as anything but a street sweeper? And Ol’ Boob is just one example….I suppose we will soon see Corzine back in charge of some other investment bank. This diefication of CEOs would be laughable if it weren’t so pathetic. Want to increase incomes? Quit pissing it away on incompetence.

  6. ssc says:

    Er, BR, I did not see any mention of the treasury, and to quote WSJ, treasury bonds just got “walloped”. Employment’s solid, DOW’s at 4 year, NASQAD 11 year high, all with solid volume (THAT hasn’t happened in a long time). Russell 2000, Transport, all good. Other than printing money, who’s going to buy bonds at negative yield???

  7. rktbrkr says:

    Trimtabs is passing on the BLS coolaid…

    the avuncular CEO of TrimTabs, who despite channeling Lewis Black lately, likely knows this data a little better than the average Jim on the street having collected tax witholdings data for the past 14 years, is modestly apoplectic at the adjustments. In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that “Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number,” adding, “Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs.” A 3.3 million “adjustment” solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? Finally, Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these ‘real unadjusted job change’ facts.

    PS I remember there were big adjustments when we dropped a few clicks from 9.1% almost a year ago

  8. willid3 says:

    Federal debt is high. but who its owed isn’t who we are told it is

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/biggest-holders-of-us-gov-t-debt.html

    1. Federal Reserve and Intragovernmental Holdings U.S. debt holdings: $6.328 trillion
    2. China U.S. debt holdings: $1.132 trillion
    3. Other Investors/Savings Bonds U.S. debt holdings $1.107 trillion
    4. Japan U.S. debt holdings: $1.038 trillion
    5. Pension Funds U.S. debt holdings: $842.2 billion
    6. Mutual Funds U.S. debt holdings: $653.5 billion
    7. State and Local Governments U.S. debt holdings: $484.4 billion
    8. The United Kingdom U.S. debt holdings: $429.4 billion
    9. Depository Institutions U.S. debt holdings: $284.5 billion
    10. Insurance Companies U.S. debt holdings: $250.1 billion

  9. JohnnyVee says:

    I feel your pain. I am a Miami Dolphin fan. So normally I’ll root for the AFC team, but I just can’t root for the Pats. They are a bunch of cheaters – recall when the Pats got fined for video taping other teams practices. The Pats haven’t won a Superbowl since.

    Anyway, Al Davis is taking a dirt nap now, so I am think about a one time free agent fan move. Ugh! Wher is the football version of MoneyBall

  10. Robespierre says:

    “CS home price index falls to lowest since Feb ’03″

    This is a negative unless you are looking to buy which is the case for the younger people. I will welcome even lower prices. Perhaps, that will convince people not to think of their home as an ATM or a retirement plan.

  11. Molesworth says:

    rktbrkr Says:
    Biderman wonders whether the BLS is being pressured during an election year to paint an overly optimistic picture by President Obama’s administration in light of these ‘real unadjusted job change’ facts.
    ***
    Or consider this…if BLS is fudging, maybe they’re doing it on their own accord, reckoning that if Reps take complete charge, BLS will be eliminated and they’ll lose their own jobs.

  12. TRI quantification of forward-looking economic data releases over the past 30 days suggests GDP is on a trajectory rising from a diminished o.7% pace in March (Q1) to 2.9% in September, the latter to be the final BEA announcement in the days prior to the Nov 6th Election.

    TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm

  13. theexpertisin says:

    You want torture? Think Cleveland Browns.

  14. mathman says:

    on the “glowing” employment report:

    http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2012/02/exceptable-jobs-report.html#comments

    “Exceptable Jobs Report [sic]

    Today’s jobs report — really good…except for the fact that:

    1. Full-time jobs (that is, the kind that offer benefits and which represent a genuine commitment by employers) only accounted for a fraction of the increase in employment

    “Final Nail In Today’s NFP Tragicomedy: Record Surge In Part-Time Workers” (Zero Hedge)

    2. Not much has changed for those who’ve had the hardest time finding employment

    “El-Erian Pours Cold Water On Today’s Jobs Report” (Business Insider)

    3. Seasonal and other adjustments probably exaggerated the labor market’s underlying strength

    “Economists React: Jobs Report ‘Positive in Every Way’” (Real Time Economics)

    4. Geopolitical, political, and weather-related disruptions (e.g., the Thailand floods) during 2011 likely pushed back some of the hiring that would have taken place earlier in the year

    “The Hiring Hare Will Soon Morph Into a Tortoise” (Real Time Economics)

    Never mind — if the stock market is happy, that’s all that matters. Right?”

  15. VennData says:

    The “… decades-long war against religion in the United States and argued that other faiths are given tolerance while Christianity is persecuted…” has coincided with a ten-fold increase in GDP and equity market valuations…

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/la-pn-newt-gingrich-religion-nevada-20120204,0,4302473.story

    …is this why the rich elites in new York who ALL support the Clinton/Obama axis persecute religion – well, only Christianity, to increase their wealth?

    Has Canada, the rest of the G7, the BRICs, and other emerging markets benefited from a free-rider effect of so many ‘elitist” municipalities calling Christmas trees (as it was written in the Bible…)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christmas_tree

    …with the secular “Holiday Tree?” The Sunday ritual of NFL football replacing pious prayer while the Brazilians, Russians, French et al can pray their asses off day and night? Has this given them a leg up in world markets?

    What of the oil sheikdoms? Has their jihadist crusade taking over our community gas pumps help fund this pro-Mohammed/anti-Jesus denial of rights?

    …and Facebook’s (thou shalt not worship idols .. wait that’s TMZ….) given these anti-Heaven types (they call themselves Pro-Void) growing their godless wealth without the casualties of religious war?!

    These are serious questions, for serious study. And I’m sure the GOP can find one academic somewhere that, Richard-Lindzen-like, will be enough for them to reject all data for their feelings of, in this case, rage, anger, hatred, and Tebowness at the religious-persecution deniers.

    They are using the fruits of wealth to make us a nation of CHRINOs (Christians in name only.)

    They are using Jesus’s saying “turn the other cheek” against the pious, reverent, and pure. Well you know what I say? you know what I say to Obama, Planned Parenthood and the rest of the so-called Pro-Voiders? I say, kiss my cheek

  16. [...] If you’re still hung up on macro, here is a nice list of positives (and negatives if anyone cares about them anymore!). The fundamentals [...]

  17. Neil C Denver says:

    The latest BLS report shows that January’s private-sector jobs seasonally adjusted jobs monthly increase was 257,000.

    (110,436,000 vs. 110,179,000)

    It also showed that there were 5,211,000 FEWER JOBS than there were in January 2008

    (110,436,000 vs. 115,647,000)

    I know that there are those who question that we lost 5 million jobs, but if the BLS data is so ‘off’, then why should anyone be either positive or negative over any of their data.