Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march
2) German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April
3)Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since Mar ’08 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k
4) Philly and NY mfr’g surveys gain but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts
5) Multi family housing starts continue to grow
6) NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07
7) India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates
8) Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE

Negatives:

1) Greek drama never ending, ECB wants special treatment
2) Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4%
3) Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98
4) Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction
5) Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE
6) Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines
7) US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up)
8) MBA said purchase apps fell 8.4% on the week to the slowest of the yr
9) While CPI rate of change a touch below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.

Category: Markets

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9 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events (2/17/12)”

  1. carleric says:

    I am certainly more impressed with the Icelandic progress than the pussy whipped European countries. Interesting how only one country figured it out. We should bring some Icelanders to this country to help get it fixed. Sadly Benney and his Congressional cohorts couldn’t possibly figure it out.

  2. carleric says:

    New Icelandic mottom

    enginn sársauki, enginn ávinningur

    Roughly translated “No Pain, No Gain

  3. Futuredome says:

    I suspect the Greek show is about ready to end. Late March probably. The market is misreading this one, as the so called PSI stuff is PR.

    I suspect the next correction will be triggered over uncertainty with the Greek default.

  4. rktbrkr says:

    Greek bond investors get screwed out of collecting on their insurance because the 50%+ haircut is not deemed a credit event and now the ECB sidesteps losses so the bond investors get screwed a second time. Don’t know how these investors could ever buy another PIIGS bond again. Buyer beware!

  5. rktbrkr says:

    BAC and CITI admit defrauding the gov, make a payment and continue their business as usual. I guess if everybody is committing fraud then fraud becomes the commonly accepted business practice. Time for a new acronym TBTPF, Too Big To Prosecute for Fraud. Like paying taxes fraud prosecution is only suitable for the little people.

    http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/02/17/reuters-tv-breakingviews-defrauding-uncle-sam?videoId=230352377&videoChannel=117766

  6. mathman says:

    The reason no one is being prosecuted is that too many people in Congress and Justice (not to mention the White House) are in on it all. We’re ruled by rich inside traders and people who bend the law to allow their group to hose everyone else with impunity. Corrupt capitalism isn’t government.

  7. park city skier says:

    Alan Abelson sounded near term bullish today in his article, that should be a negative for up the coming weeks. Does anyone know what happen to the yearly(2011) birth death revision numbers? I thought they were coming out with the jan employment numbers but i couldn’t find them.

    Futuredome, the 2nd LTRO date is coming up at the end of Feb, if the european banks knew the greek outcome by LTRO date, they would have more clarity for how much money they needed to borrow.

    Either we break out to march toward the 2007 highs or we are going to have a direction change. I’m in the latter camp but I’m aware of the irrational exuberance that has taken over the market from the liquidity drops of central banks and the fiscal largeness(deficit spending) that is being spent.

    I’m looking for the flash PMI number out of china to be below 48.8(lowered bank reserve proactive move) and a PMI contraction out of the EU this coming week.

  8. TRI quantification of forward-looking economic data releases over the past weeks suggests GDP will shake off a slip to a o.8% pace in April and surge to 2.9% by October.

    TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm