Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (2/24/12)
Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Greek bailout 2 and PSI (awaiting participation vote but CAC will force it) deal basically done, finally, and for now
2) Feb final UoM confidence up slightly from Jan but to best in a yr
3) Jan New Home Sales a bit better than expected, months supply shrinks again
4) Initial Jobless Claims 4 week avg falls to lowest since Mar ’08 at 359k
5) 7 yr note auction, most sensitive auction of the week to inflation expectations, was solid. What are buyers seeing that equity guys don’t?
6) After last weekend’s RRR cut in China, Shanghai index rallies every day of the week to highest since mid Nov
7) HSBC flash Feb PMI mfr’g up almost 1 pt to 49.7, a 4 month high but below 50 for 4th straight month
Negatives:
1) Notwithstanding Greek deal, news priced in to European equity markets as German and French stock markets up only slightly on week and Italy, Spain and Greece close lower
2) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index falls back below 50 unexpectedly
3) According to AAA, US gasoline prices rise another .10 on the week to $3.65, highest since Sept
4) Implied inflation expectations in TIPS continue higher
5) Existing Home Sales 320k less than expected including prior month revision but with sales at highest since May ’10, months supply falls to 6.1, smallest since April ’06
6) MBA said purchase apps fall 2.9% to lowest since Oct. Refi apps fall 4.8% on the week.
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February 24th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Paid $4.60 for premium gas in Santa Monica Monday. Looks to be going to $5.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
HPQ & DELL announced earnings this past week and both guided lower.
Nuke inspection impasse in Iran.
February 24th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
Housing needs a ride.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhTjV6hQcis&feature=related
February 24th, 2012 at 9:55 pm
Here’s another negative:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/02/criminal-case-against-mf-global-looks-highly-unlikely%E2%80%8F/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+valuewalk%2FtNbc+%28Value+Walk%29#.T0hNV_VCAjE
February 25th, 2012 at 1:22 am
The GREEK DEAL done…ha
Watch Video 2: http://jugglingdynamite.com/2012/02/24/the-economics-of-austerity-to-fund-bond-holders/
Plus the Germans are doing every thing they can to force Greece to decide enough is enough and exit the euro (after all Bailout1: $110bn(?). Bailout2: $130bn, Greek GDP $265 Bn), LTRO is there to bailout German/French banks if Greece leaves (so German thinks the LTRO is enough).
What about the $26bn or $40bn of Greek bonds issued under UK law, 75% loss on this must force the ISDA to trigger CDS (of course the ISDS didnt call a 50% loss of MF Golbal a default, so anything goes) so the holders on these Greek UK bonds may get 100% of the value back…
…more bad news to come from Athens I feel
Barry the Greek deal is not done…
February 25th, 2012 at 8:15 am
Positive #8: Ritholtz travels for a week and the market does not crash
February 25th, 2012 at 9:21 am
Freedom of Speech in the Bond Market?
Just this week PIMCO resigned from SIFMA because there was a lack there of.
February 25th, 2012 at 10:56 am
In Michigan, Santorum feels heat from within
“…After a week in which Rick Santorum’s presidential campaign often seemed focused on issues like pre-natal testing, abortion and religion, the message from the Republican Party’s establishment was becoming clear on Friday: We’ve had enough…”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/25/us-usa-campaign-idUSTRE81N1PG20120225
Ah yes, but your trained monkeys out there, the ones the GOP Media Machine those elites have financed, coordinated to talk about “jobs, jobs, jobs,” “drill, drill, drill” Birth certificates etc., etc., and anything else that the media will shine their cameras one for more than a day. Those trained monkey’s of yours WANT to hear what Santorum has to say.
And if you think Romney can “capture” the middle… think again…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/24/mitt-romney-economic-speech-falls-flat-stadium
An empty stadium? And he is the self-proclaimed “only one that can beat Obama,” uh oh?
The stock market is up because we know we’re going to get a second Obama term, clarity, markets like clarity.
February 26th, 2012 at 7:48 pm
VennData ..
yes you make a could point, ben bernanke looks like he has secured another term.
yet the stock market is up 21% since oct 2011 low on these terms only: LTRO, POMO, TWIST
and NOT : GROWTH, EMPLOYMENT, EARNINGS, PMI, REVENUE
if you dont know the terms first mentioned, get out of the investing game NOW !
February 26th, 2012 at 8:04 pm
TRI quantification of forward-looking economic data releases over the past week suggests GDP will shake off a slip to a o.8% pace in April and surge to 2.9% by October.
TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm