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Barron’s: Home Prices Are About to Bottom (take 2)

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 17, 2012 @ 2:28 pm In Contrary Indicators,Psychology,Real Estate | Comments Disabled

If this week’s cover story in Barron’s cover article on a housing bottom looks vaguely familiar, its because it is familiar.

Almost 4 years ago, the magazine published pretty much the same article saying mostly the same things.

[1]In the July 14, 2008 edition, Jonathan R. Laing wrote “Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived [2].”  That article was terribly wrong, and many years too early.

The latest RRE bottom calling article is dated March 17, 2012, titled Home Prices Ready to Rebound [3] and is also penned by Jonathan R. Laing. We don’t yet know if its terribly wrong and many years too early. However, I would hazard to make the guess that its probably modestly wrong and a few years too early.

As the current rate of Barron’s Housing bottom cover stories, we should expect to see a third bottom call 43 months from now — around October 2015. I expect that bottom call will be mostly right and perhaps even a touch late.



Why Barron’s Housing Cover Is So Terribly Wrong [5] (July 12th, 2008)

Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived [2]
Barron’s JULY 14, 2008

Ready to Rebound [3]
Barron’s MARCH 17, 2012

Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/barrons-home-prices-are-about-to-bottom-take-2/

URLs in this post:

[1] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/OB-BV124_BA_Cov_20080711230914-1.gif

[2] Bottom’s Up: This Real-Estate Rout May Be Short-Lived: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121581623724947273.html

[3] Home Prices Ready to Rebound: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577281453828447714.html

[4] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/home-bottom.jpg

[5] Why Barron’s Housing Cover Is So Terribly Wrong: http://www.ritholtz.com/blogwww.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/07/why-barrons-housing-cover-is-so-terribly-wrong/

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