Since the market made its infamous 666 low three years ago yesterday, how have various asset classes performed? Strategas Partners via Barron’s gives us the details:



I would have included Nasdaq, the Dow, small caps, food stuffs as well, but a nice collection of data.


Stocks End Mixed, as Small-Caps Shine
Barron’s MARCH 10, 2012

Category: Data Analysis, Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

15 Responses to “Bottoms Up! From March 9, 2009 to Today”

  1. AlexM says:

    That is an interesting list. So many people were convinced that we were going off a cliff, heading into the “End Times” and they missed a huge rally. If they invested in gold they would have made out ok, but too many remained too bearish. Reading the more negative blogs today still might convince you to barricade yourself in the basement with 50 lb bags of rice, cases of canned food, and ammo. History tells us that economies recover eventually.

    Even housing prices have seemed to try and find a bottom in some markets.

  2. VennData says:

    I’d a put some numbera in about BP. If the GOP would spend half the time they spend talking about XL on safe oil drilling we would all be better off.

  3. b_thunder says:

    Fed Balance Sheet from $2 trillion to $2.8 trillion? Nicely picked date, no question about it.
    Does anybody even care to recall that it was 800 billion just 6 months prior?

    Well, at least “real” GDP 6% growth (not even per capita) over that period is all one needs to know regarding how much *real wealth* the Fed dollars have created over three(!) years of “recovery.”

  4. Francisco Bandres de Abarca says:

    It is interesting to note how little the S&P500 revenue per share (TTM) as changed (+1%) when compared with the substantial change in S&P500 operating EPS and operating margin. The oft’ heard question or observation being, “Is the current EPS level sustainable?”

    I’m guessing–wildly guessing–that these higher crude/fuel prices will somehow impact that operating margin number. I know–wild.

  5. bear_in_mind says:

    Fascinating data, indeed. Including deficits and debt as “assets” rather than liabilities is a bit bassackwards, but the intent is clear. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see similar snapshots in previous times of Fed easing (i.e. ordinary business cycle vs. financial crisis) for comparison? Lastly, with each subsequent QE (or similar) intervention, is not the Fed’s approach risking a grave misallocation of resources toward high-risk instruments? From here it seems the Fed is torquing a very large spring that will likely have unintended consequences when the pent-up energy is released. Am I alone in that assessment?

  6. [...] From Barry Ritholtz’s fine blog The Big Picture.  Since 2009′s Wednesday March 9, 2009 666 low oil has gone from $47.10 a barrel to $106.70 (up 127%), Gold from $922 an ounce to $1707 (up 85%), all while the Fed’s balance sheet has gone from $2 trillion to $2.9 trillion and government debt and the rolling budget deficit are up 42% and 33% respectively. Share this:EmailFacebookDiggReddit This entry was posted in fed balance sheet is up 44%, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. ← Kotlikoff 2012 MF Global Trustee Freeh Asks Court to Pay MF Global Executive Bonuses → [...]

  7. Sechel says:

    Revenue up only 1%?

  8. obsvr-1 says:

    @bear_in_mind Says:

    no not alone, but drowned out by all the wonkish FED speak and MSM blathering.

    Consider – it is not legal for the FED to monetize the US Treasury debt (purchase Treasuries from the UST directly), but it seems perfectly OK for the FED to launder the money through the Primary Dealers to effectively monetize the debt. The FED wraps these activities in the FOMC SOP speak, but everyone should be able to see how years of FOMC activities have never, historically, unleashed $Ts of securities onto the FED bal sheet.

    Why is this a big deal, because it takes the fiscal spend governor away from the system, allowing for open loop behavior, which everyone should understand will lead to runaway and destructive outcomes. Result, the gov’t spenders are effectively paying 0% interest on the deficit (UST pays the FED, FED returns the interest to the UST).

    Food for thought: The gov’t spends money into existence into the private sector when they deficit spend (grow the money supply), then they issue US Treasuries to account for the deficit spend (accumulation into the National Debt). This in itself is not entirely bad because the there is a balance in new Treasury’s created to offset the spend (Effectively trading demand assets for savings assets in the private sector). When the treasury bond matures, the USTry will then trade the savings asset (US treasury) for FRN/demand deposits within the private sector. However, when the FED buys the US Treasury it creates new demand deposits (money) and trades for the US Treasury (savings asset); which in FED speak, they say they are only trading savings for demand deposits so it is not inflationary, we are doing this to meet our “target” interest rate. BUT, remember the reason those US treasury’s are in existence in the first place, the Gov’t created new demand deposits (deficit spend) — so when a US treasury matures on the FED balance sheet, the Bond expires without any payment (because the USTreasury would pay the FED for the bond and the FED would send the proceeds to the UST, effectively expired the debt). When a bond matures on the FEDs balance sheet, the amount of Treasury’s representing the National Debt goes down, but not the National Debt as the original FRN/demand deposits are a liability to the gov’t. Remember the original money supply (money stock) was increased when the Gov’t deficit spent. Thereby reducing the value of money in the private sector, reducing purchasing power of the dollar, which is inflationary.

    This all takes place slowly, and peanut buttered across the Reserve System (world), over a period of time — so FED speak can white wash the effects in the short term.

    These games are playing out right under everyones nose, the greatest wealth transfer from the working class (99.9 % – ers) driving the wealth gap further and further … if everyone could just understand this grand theft machine designed into the FED/US Gov’t/Banking system, by the money elite.

  9. Robespierre says:

    @AlexM Says:

    “That is an interesting list. So many people were convinced that we were going off a cliff, heading into the “End Times” and they missed a huge rally. ”

    “The recession officially ended in June 2009.. This recent recession, having begun in December 2007, lasted 18 months.”

    Now lets try it this way:
    As soon as the great recession started (12/2007) you put your money in gold and as soon as it ends you put your money in an S&P 500 ETF.

    Gold Dec 2007 about $800 today about $1,700
    S&P500 June 09 about 900 today about $1,400

    Now to me these are more logical entry point for either investment..
    The fact of the matter is that any monkey (like myself) can pick a time frame to show that their system is best at predicting future performance AFTER the fact… just saying

  10. Robert M says:

    That’s a load of cash for 6.6 % increase

  11. mote says:

    “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way – in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.”

    Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

  12. [...] A look at stock market performance three years into the bull market.  (Total Return, Big Picture) [...]

  13. AlexM says:


    My post was not about entry points, or time frame picking much less about which system is best at predicting future performance before or after the fact. Plus please do not quote a sentence that I never said and make it look like it should be attributed to me.

    My point was that too many people thought that the world was coming to an end and were (and still are) waiting for the “End Times” and they invested or not invested accordingly.

  14. PDS says:

    BR…well that confirms what many of us have been saying for sometime…which is… during the period you focus on, without the Fed pumping $874bil…and Fiscal stimulus of $4.6tril which created the meager $864bil of GDP growth over period…the stock market would have gone nowhere…

    S&P Mkt Cap up $6,476
    Fed Bal Sheet $874bil
    Govt Debt $4.6tril
    GDP $864bil

    Total $6,338tril

    but you really need to add in, as B thunder points out…the other $1tril that the Fed added to their balance in previous 6months before you start the data points

    if that is included…and looking at it in more realistic terms….the govt paid $7.5tril to get $6.5tril increase in the equity market…and only marginal improvment in GDP….which is true since none of it went into the real estate markets, where it was really targeted for, as prices there have continued to decline in that asset class..