I am stumped by the ongoing insistence that a turnaround in Housing is upon us. It simply is not in the data, as we saw sales of new homes fell 1.6%, plus or minus 23.9% (LOL).
Despite unusually warm weather, we still saw a sequential monthly drop in New Home Sales. The weather is more reflected in the year over year data — sales rate were 11.4% above February 2011 (which was a cold and snowy month last year).
Median sales prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, jumped 8.3%, but that’s primarily being driven by the property mix of whats going into contract. Anecdotally, we hear lots of lower end buyers having a hard time qualifying for mortgages.
Meanwhile, today’s Pending Home Sales Index also fell 0.5% to 96.5 in February from 97.0 in January but is 9.2% above February 2011 when it was 88.4. Note that this data reflects contracts, not closings. A sizable chunk of deals will fall apart.
I suspect tomorrow’s Case Shiller Index will be similarly disappointing to the Housing bulls.
You guys keep on bottom calling — you’ll get it right eventually!
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.