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Pending Home Sales, Permits, Starts & Completions

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 26, 2012 @ 11:30 am In Credit,Real Estate | Comments Disabled

I am stumped by the ongoing insistence that a turnaround in Housing is upon us. It simply is not in the data, as we saw sales of new homes fell 1.6%, plus or minus 23.9% (LOL).

Despite unusually warm weather, we still saw a sequential monthly drop in New Home Sales [1]. The weather is more reflected in the year over year data — sales rate were 11.4% above February 2011 (which was a cold and snowy month last year).

Median sales prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, jumped 8.3%, but that’s primarily being driven by the property mix of whats going into contract. Anecdotally, we hear lots of lower end buyers having a hard time qualifying for mortgages.

Meanwhile, today’s Pending Home Sales Index [2] also fell 0.5% to 96.5 in February from 97.0 in January but is 9.2% above February 2011 when it was 88.4. Note that this data reflects contracts, not closings. A sizable chunk of deals will fall apart.

I suspect tomorrow’s Case Shiller Index [3] will be similarly disappointing to the Housing bulls.

You guys keep on bottom calling — you’ll get it right eventually!


Click to enlarge:




More charts after the jump




Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog

URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/03/housing-permits-starts-completions/

URLs in this post:

[1] New Home Sales: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-homes-dip-16-while-prices-jump-2012-03-23

[2] Pending Home Sales Index: http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2012/03/phs_feb

[3] Case Shiller Index: http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/9_3063-economicCalendar.html

[4] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/a.gif

[5] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/b.gif

[6] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/c.gif

[7] Image: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/d.gif

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