Market/Economic Conference Call: Wednesday 5pm
By Barry Ritholtz - March 4th, 2012, 8:00PM
In the office, we have been doing weekly conference calls for subscribers to FusionIQ (currently offline for maintenance).
Myself and Kevin Lane cover economics, markets, investing, trading, and sectors. Its about 30 minutes of discussion, followed by open Q&A.
We have been limiting this to current subscribers and clients, requiring phone numbers and email addresses.
This week, we are going to do an open one for TBP readers and all comers. It is scheduled for Wednesday at 5pm. We will get a PDF of various charts posted, as well as post the call in information.
We can start by soliciting questions right now. Please use comments for just that.
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March 4th, 2012 at 9:00 pm
US gasoline deliveries, US miles driven, US industrial use of electricity, Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index – all point down since December 2011. Can we ignore these or are these clear signs of heading into a recession?
March 4th, 2012 at 9:24 pm
BR,
with Industry ‘rags’, like “Investment Advisor” Magazine, shouting ‘Dividends’–from, seemingly, every ‘Hilltop’, and down every ‘Hollow’– there’s, curiously(?), no mention of ‘Covered-Call Writing’…
http://www.advisorone.com/2012/02/22/dividends-dividends-dividends
http://www.advisorone.com/2011/10/26/economy-calls-for-dividend-yield-based-portfolios
http://www.advisorone.com/search?search=Dividends&cmd=Search
maybe your Customers would find it worthwhile if they were shown that that Strategy, actually, reduces Risks (of holding ‘Equities’), and can provide the ability to Increase Income from their Portfolio(s)..~
March 4th, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Where do you stand on natural gas investment? Can nat gas continue to decline or is it a great long term buying opportunity here?
March 4th, 2012 at 10:23 pm
To add to what gloeschi said, Here is the Ceridian release doc
http://www.ceridianindex.com/userfiles/file/Index-Report-Jan-2012.pdf
gasoline deliveries (look at last 3 dots in chart and last row in table)
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M
ECRI’s call has been debated by quite a few
but what I want to know about is the divergence between Russell 2000 and large caps and if it is a good idea to bet they will revert closer together?
Also http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/ how do you capitalize on/trade the strong trend in Business Equipment (10% YoY growth, everything else including consumer weak)
March 4th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
At what unemployment rate will the Fed appreciably reverse their dovish statement? “Neutralize” their statement?
Based upon the current trend, when will we get there?
What inflation rate would trump that? What are the odds of that?
What are the odds of a appreciably hawkish statement before the election? In 2013?
March 4th, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Gloeschi,
Not to worry, industrial production is up…
“… Factories in the U.S. boosted production in January, capping the biggest back-to-back increases in more than two years, showing manufacturing will remain at the forefront of the expansion…”
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-15/production-at-u-s-factories-climbs-on-demand-for-automobiles-machinery.html
Thanks to all the long-awaited emphasis put on efficiency, people have the tools to do more with less.
March 4th, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Will we have high inflation or low inflation in the next 10 years? Are we likely to look like Japan or the US in the 70′s?
March 5th, 2012 at 2:32 am
There’s a lot of talk about the possibility of a recession at the moment. Hussman and the ECRI think we’re heading for one but most other people are lined up on the other side. To what extent does recession prediction factor in your investment process?
March 5th, 2012 at 3:04 am
ECRI’s call again. It seem probable now. When, and by what indicators will the market catch on?
March 5th, 2012 at 6:04 am
Please discus debt-money. A government that must borrow it’s own currency is doomed to fail. Debt-money is a ponzi scheme to enrich the capital machine. It creates a money trust that becomes all powerful, controlling not only governments but people. The bankster class has convinced governments around the world that they must borrow their currency rather than spend it into the economy free of debt. Debt-money encourages citizens to become consumers, financial market participants to embrace fraud, people to leave governance to politicians. It is an evil that must be overcome, just as self-interest must give way to selfless interest. Adam Smith will one day, perhaps too far in the future to benefit any of us, be seen as a visionary thinker who has been left behind by a better idea.
March 5th, 2012 at 6:39 am
I’m curious as to where you think we are in the cycle and what would be some of the strategies we should take at this time.
March 5th, 2012 at 6:46 am
What criteria do you use for exiting a position assuming there’s been no specific negative news? I don’t want to cut profits short but neither give up too many gains or incur losses? What’s optimum?
Thanks!
March 5th, 2012 at 6:49 am
BR: Is Apple overbought? Everybody and their grandma owns this stock. I’m thinking if they start paying a dividend, then the party’s over. Thanks!
March 5th, 2012 at 7:35 am
What’s your opinion on the energy sector, particularly the investabilty of the fracking stocks, on the drilling, producer and equipment service provider side. Thanks.
March 5th, 2012 at 8:16 am
Americans are using less gasoline mostly because of increased gas mileage, a phenomenon that is just beginning. 100s maybe 1000s of other efficiencies are underway, from power-strips that turnoff all the peripherals to solar shingles to more efficient boilers and furnaces (my new boiler decreased my oil consumption by over 25%). Is the market right to ignore these savings when pricing oil and other energy.
March 5th, 2012 at 9:28 am
I would be interested to know how much foreign, especially European, money is flowing into the US markets (for safe haven, hotter market, currency reasons, etc.). With volume not all that strong, IF European money is moving here, does it constitute the marginal demand for equities and, if that flow were to reverse, is it significant enough to cause the US market to contract?
March 5th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Your prediction on a probable Israeli attack on Iran’s nuke program and its effect on the market. Will the rest of the Arab world get involved, and what will be the U.S. response?
March 5th, 2012 at 9:56 am
What equity sectors and geographic areas do you particularly favor/disfavor for the medium term? Are the currently loved “dividend” etfs a prescription for under-performance or a prescription for lower draw-down risk and adequate returns?
March 5th, 2012 at 10:03 am
Are you still in the Bendback/Pullback/Standback/ Position?
March 5th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
What do we make of the weakness in the Dow Transports at this juncture?
March 6th, 2012 at 2:30 am
The financial industry has so many great ideas that we could incorporate into other areas of our society. Given the rousing success of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, how about letting a committee of Nevada bookmakers decide the actual score of the Super Bowl each year?
March 7th, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Why is fusion IQ different/better now vs in past when I subscribed?
March 7th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
is there a call here or what?
~~~
BR: Postponed til Thursday due to Apple fever
March 9th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Did this call take place on Thu@8PM? If yes, is there a recording of the call (or something) available? I’d like to see your view on several questions posted above.
Thanks
March 10th, 2012 at 7:38 am
Barry
I saw the postponement but nothing further – how do we find out what you were going to say? Or have you just run out of time to do this ?
~~~
BR: I will reschedule this for this week — probably Thursday