My early morning reads:
• Chips Forecast a Slowdown Is Coming (WSJ) see also History Stole Your Market Returns (Motley Fool)
• Don’t ask Bank of America: What Do I Owe You? (Columbia Journalism Review)
• Byron Wien: The Disbelievers (Blackstone) see also 2007-09 bear market now totally erased (Market Watch)
• Wave 5 Of The Cyclical Bull Market (Adisor Perspectives)
• Signs of a New Tiananmen in China (Diplomat)
• Opportunities for the contrarians (Financial Post)
• SEC Probes Ties to High-Speed Traders (WSJ) see also Regulators Finalize Oversight Process for Nonbanks (WSJ)
• US draws up plans for nuclear drones (Guardian)
• Self-sculpting sand (MIT News)
• This is what your Universe looks like! (Science Blogs) see also ‘Super-Earths’ in M-Dwarf Survey: Life on Other Planets? (Yahoo News)
What are you reading?
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Short of New Funds, Firm Takes a ‘Pause’
Source: WSJ
Category: Financial Press
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Here’s what I’m reading:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-04/analyst-banker-firewall-weakened-in-bill-on-obama-s-desk.html
What an anti-reform outrage, huh? But it’s an easy one for individuals to avoid: just shun the stinking wirehouses, with their institutionalized pump-and-dump business model, designed to cater to a thundering herd of SUCKERS.
OT, but relevant to Lookout Below — April Edition:
Market now down 163+. On the THOUGHT of the Fed withdrawing stimulus. Immediate cardiac arrest. This patient is on it‘s deathbed, being kept alive by artificial means.
________
The link to the universe pics are absolutely astounding and humbling.
Not saying that by the end of the day, we won’t see a 200+ gain. That’s what happens when you crank up the generators, turn up the heat, and shoot meth directly into the corps’ heart.
Blond-haired, blue-eyed youth!
Fearful and paranoid of immigrants!
Unprecedented military spending!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/mar/28/conservative-teen-magazine
On Byron Wien’s discussion of the 10-yr treasury vs stocks.
I am surprised that he does not address the fact that the Fed has pushed their traditional vehicle of manipulating the Fed Funds rate to zero and then actively targeted the 10-yr T as their remaining major policy tool. I believe that this is unique in the annals of Fed history to make such a concerted effort to lower the interest rate of a long-term bond.
It is very unusual to have a long bond interest rate 1% or more below the ambient inflation metrics. Historically it was unusual to have the short-term rates this much lower than inflation never mind long-term interest rates. I was just able to refinance my house at a 30 yr interest rate that is only about 1% higher than the current CPI numbers and my interest is tax-deductible, so the net cost of my 30-yr loan is currently lower than inflation at the time of financing! Unheard of!
The Fed-model broke down for Mr. Wien and others because the Fed has actively targeted it as a primary policy tool. The world knows this which is why the S&P 500 is not at 2000 right now, although it is much higher than historical valuation norms because of the liquidity and elimination of viable alternatives. Bernanke has the stock market and commodities on Fed-fed life support. Both are unlikely to survive elimination of QE unless GDP growth pops up another 1% or so. an increase in mid-long treasury interest rates will push up the US cost of borrowing which will further impact federal budgets which will make that extra 1% difficult to obtain.
Will we have the Corzine’s five?
We Were Regulators Once: Ed Gray’s Finest Hour
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/04/we-were-regulators-once-ed-grays-finest-hour.html#more-1863
You can Fool most of the people all of the time ?
(especially if you present data they do not understand…)
A Review of the Citigroup Prediction on US Energy
“However, the real concern lies with the relatively unrealistic image that is being projected for US production over the next eight years.”
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9079
———————–
Does the U.S. Really Have More Oil than Saudi Arabia?
“some have assumed that the Green River Formation and its roughly 2 trillion barrels of oil resources will be developed next because they think it is a similar type of resource. But it is not.”
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9085
———————————-
A fever has swept over American energy observers in recent weeks as they compete to write the most optimistic story of impending energy independence.
For example, see Clifford Krauss in the New York Times, Citigroup’s Ed Morse in the Wall Street Journal, and Raymond James’s outlook covered by Angel Gonzalez for Dow Jones, with perhaps the “Bonanza” theme song in the background.
. Because as far as the data shows, none of these projections have any basis in reality.
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/energy-futurist/the-last-sip/455
I can’t believe Fox News hasn’t jumped on this story. Romney just one 3 more states and as the NY Times story indicates he’s so close to locking up the nomination that he’s now focusing on the current President.
And the market’s response to Romney’s inevitablity – it’s taking just about the biggest dive of the year. Fox News commentators would have to note that the market is speaking loudly about the prospects of a Romney presidency. They are talking about that, right? That would be fair and balanced, wouldn’t it?
:-)
An article on today’s traders hissy fit:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-put-still-exists-but-not-at-any-price-2012-04-03
Unfortunately, Wall Street now believes that the Fed has a third mandate which to ensure that Wall Street makes money on long bets on risky assets. They also believe that this mandate trumps the other two, the money supply and unemployment.
There are probably a lot of people close to retirement or in retirement who like to see “normal” interest rates return so that they can clip their 3% to 6% coupons on bank accounts and federal debt. However, that does not fit into Wall Street’s current model of the universe.
Petey,
Those pictures convey unbelievable beauty, and unfathomable vastness. Imagine all the explosions, blast jets, nebulae, and shock waves we can’t see amongst those hundreds of thousands of galaxies.
Maybe most of you know this because of the vast amount of reading you guys do:
Another interesting thing about the deep field is that when they formed, some of those stars were only 90 million light-years away from us. Now, due to space inflation, they are the farthest objects we can see at 13 billion light-years. The rest of the universe is outside of our optical sphere, and will forever remain unseen, racing away from us at multiples of the speed of light. Eventually, everything will go dark and there will be no evidence that anything was ever visible. Future astronomers will conclude that we are totally alone, just like they ancients did. Just the bound by gravity MW, Andromeda and the Magellanic clouds will be visible.
You’re all under arrest…
“..It is unlawful for any person, with intent to terrify, intimidate, threaten, harass, annoy or offend, to use any electronic or digital device and use any obscene, lewd or profane language or suggest any lewd or lascivious act, or threaten to inflict physical harm to the person or property of any person…”
http://mediacoalition.org/mediaimages/AZ-HB-2549s-as-passed-by-legislature.pdf
No “annoying or offending” or you’ll be strip searched…
http://www.suntimes.com/news/nation/11682964-418/supreme-court-strip-searches-ok.html
Gotta love the GOP America. Thanks GOP voter, this is a small price to pay to prevent your income taxes from going to those horrifying Clinton-era rates.
Romney Says Obama Hides His Agenda
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/05/us/politics/romney-says-obama-is-hiding-his-true-policy-aims.htm
Romney knows Obama’s secret agenda, do you?
ROFL. Why can’t the GOP actually talk about what REALLY happens instead of making up straw men?
Historically, corporations were understood to be responsible to a complex web of constituencies, including employees, communities, society at large, suppliers, and shareholders. But in the era of deregulation, the interests of shareholders began to trump all the others. How can we get corporations to recognize their responsibilities beyond this narrow focus? It begins in remembering that the philosophy of putting shareholder profits over all else is a matter of ideology which is not grounded in American law or tradition. In fact, it is no more than a dangerous fad.
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/04/ken-jacobson.html
the only society wide benefit of HFT? the improvement of interconnections between countries?
another shoe drops in the foreclosure scams?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/04/have-four-pension-funds-blown-up-the-8-5-billion-bank-of-america-settlement.html
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2012/04/04/how-high-frequency-traders-benefit-us-all/