The last regional April Fed manufacturing survey, the Dallas figure, is out and it went negative to -3.4 from +10.8 in March and well below expectations of +8.0. New Orders, Backlogs, Employment, Shipments, Production and Prices Paid and Received all fell from March. Inventories though did rise. The Company Outlook did fall 14 pts to -4.5. Separately but I think of note, the home ownership rate in the US in Q1 fell to 65.4% from 66% in Q4 and is now exactly back to the 57 year average (I only have data back to 1965) of 65.4%. It’s down from the peak of 69.2% in Q2 2004 and is at the lowest level since Q1 1997. Assuming as in markets things don’t just fall back to trend after a bubble and always overshoot, expect the secular decline in the homeownership rate to further decline before it then settles back to the long term average.

Category: MacroNotes

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

Comments are closed.