As mentioned previously, to avoid confirmation bias, I force myself to read some folks whom I disagree with. When Doug Kass and I are out of phase, as happens now and again, he is the perfect foil for me.
Which is why this works so well: A perspective from Dougie which lists potentially disruptive factors that might impact markets:
1. US Politics
2. Euro Politics
3. Interest rates
4. Economic deterioration
5. Fiscal issues
6. Deflation
7. Strategists excess bullishness
8. Housing
9. Black swans
10. Fund flows
11. The nothing but Apple (AAPL) market.
12. Technical deterioration
You can see the full run over at Real Money Pro (subscription). (Update:Moved to free site)
>
Previously:
Consolidation versus Crash (April 10th, 2012)
Source:
Dirty Dozen
Doug Kass
Real Money Pro, April 19, 2012
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11501302/1/dirty-dozen.html
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Housing?? What does that have to with anything?
BR: So, are you in agreement with this list, or not?
I agree with the list, and would add that the first two are the mothers of most of the rest.
[...] h/t to Barry Ritholtz“ Tweet [...]
I would remove Fiscal issues as they are covered adequately by US-Euro politics, and Fund flows.
I would add more international power politics to spice the roster. Chinese implementation of a more aggressive foreign policy and continued economic espionage. In short < Acts of China. And, Muslim Militarism< all is not quiet in the mideast or Africa.
The list immediately loses credibility when it doesn’t have #1 Federal Reserve policy and rhetoric. That is, by far, the biggest driver.
With the exception of #7 (bullishness) the list hasn’t changed much since last October, when the rally began. So I guess it’s a question of how of the “dirty dozen” is priced in at these valuations.
still a little long and willin to go with that wall of worry
Hey Br,
Since you approve of Doug Kass as a good foil for yourself your confirmation bias should still remain? To avoid the confirmation bias you would need to force yourself to read someone you despise.
good post as yours usually are
~~~
BR: Its the ideas I want to disagree with, not the person
and what in that list except 11. doesn’t apply pretty much all time?
Black Swans?
How can one say random, unpredictable events are more or less likely at any given time?
Agree with Bob A, other than 7 & 11 these concerns are is always the list. Much like valuation, they do not help with timing.
Gosh, he left off the volcanoes. How do you forget the volcanoes?
Oh – and the wrath of God can also be a bitch.
Pretty much any of these could be listed as a potential disruptive factor at any time in the last 100 years.
“Dougie”? Really? Is he an intellectual foil, or your 3rd grade classmate? Geez o Pete. Maybe we can get stellar insight from Mikey, Little John John, Spanky, Skipper, and PonyBoy while we’re at it.
@theexpertisin;
“Acts of China.” at 12% of US military spending 6000 miles from LA a real set of issues.
“And, Muslim Militarism” with no GDP
How can there be anything but…….quiet?
“< all is not quiet in the mideast or Africa."
ilsm
I envy your complacency.
Love it and worth repeating:
Julia Chestnut Says:
April 19th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Gosh, he left off the volcanoes. How do you forget the volcanoes?
Oh – and the wrath of God can also be a bitch.