As mentioned previously, to avoid confirmation bias, I force myself to read some folks whom I disagree with. When Doug Kass and I are out of phase, as happens now and again, he is the perfect foil for me.

Which is why this works so well: A perspective from Dougie which lists potentially disruptive factors that might impact markets:

1. US Politics
2. Euro Politics
3. Interest rates
4. Economic deterioration
5. Fiscal issues
6. Deflation
7. Strategists excess bullishness
8. Housing
9. Black swans
10. Fund flows
11. The nothing but Apple (AAPL) market.
12. Technical deterioration

You can see the full run over at Real Money Pro (subscription). (Update:Moved to free site)


Consolidation versus Crash (April 10th, 2012)

Dirty Dozen
Doug Kass
Real Money Pro, April 19, 2012

Category: Markets, Trading

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

17 Responses to “Kass’ Dirty Dozen”

  1. louis says:

    Housing?? What does that have to with anything?

  2. Petey Wheatstraw says:

    BR: So, are you in agreement with this list, or not?

    I agree with the list, and would add that the first two are the mothers of most of the rest.

  3. theexpertisin says:

    I would remove Fiscal issues as they are covered adequately by US-Euro politics, and Fund flows.

    I would add more international power politics to spice the roster. Chinese implementation of a more aggressive foreign policy and continued economic espionage. In short < Acts of China. And, Muslim Militarism< all is not quiet in the mideast or Africa.

  4. cpd says:

    The list immediately loses credibility when it doesn’t have #1 Federal Reserve policy and rhetoric. That is, by far, the biggest driver.

  5. CSF says:

    With the exception of #7 (bullishness) the list hasn’t changed much since last October, when the rally began. So I guess it’s a question of how of the “dirty dozen” is priced in at these valuations.

  6. AHodge says:

    still a little long and willin to go with that wall of worry

  7. e sill says:

    Hey Br,

    Since you approve of Doug Kass as a good foil for yourself your confirmation bias should still remain? To avoid the confirmation bias you would need to force yourself to read someone you despise.

    good post as yours usually are


    BR: Its the ideas I want to disagree with, not the person

  8. Bob A says:

    and what in that list except 11. doesn’t apply pretty much all time?

  9. VennData says:

    Black Swans?
    How can one say random, unpredictable events are more or less likely at any given time?

  10. mad97123 says:

    Agree with Bob A, other than 7 & 11 these concerns are is always the list. Much like valuation, they do not help with timing.

  11. Julia Chestnut says:

    Gosh, he left off the volcanoes. How do you forget the volcanoes?

    Oh – and the wrath of God can also be a bitch.

  12. JesseLivermore says:

    Pretty much any of these could be listed as a potential disruptive factor at any time in the last 100 years.

  13. AlaskanPete says:

    “Dougie”? Really? Is he an intellectual foil, or your 3rd grade classmate? Geez o Pete. Maybe we can get stellar insight from Mikey, Little John John, Spanky, Skipper, and PonyBoy while we’re at it.

  14. ilsm says:


    “Acts of China.” at 12% of US military spending 6000 miles from LA a real set of issues.

    “And, Muslim Militarism” with no GDP

    How can there be anything but…….quiet?

    “< all is not quiet in the mideast or Africa."

  15. theexpertisin says:


    I envy your complacency.

  16. boveri says:

    Love it and worth repeating:

    Julia Chestnut Says:

    April 19th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
    Gosh, he left off the volcanoes. How do you forget the volcanoes?

    Oh – and the wrath of God can also be a bitch.