Succinct summation of the week’s events.

Positives:

1) German IFO business confidence and ZEW investor economic confidence both point to a teflon economy right now in light of debt drama with their neighbors
2) Spain sold 12 mo, 18 mo, 2 yr and 10 yr debt successfully, yields hold steady near highest since Dec
3) UK retail sales and jobs data both better than expected
4) US Retail Sales in March broad based and above estimates but core figure ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials (thanks weather) were touch light
5) Housing construction permits rise to most since Sept ’08 led by multi family
6) Refi apps rise to 5 week high as mortgage rates drop near lows again
7) Brazil and India both cut rates as focus more on growth than inflation
8) Shanghai index closes at 5 week high on growing speculation of another RRR cut
9) Positive for Japanese exporters as yen weakens after BoJ deputy Gov says they will print all the yen it takes to get to 1% inflation.

Negatives:

1) While Spanish yields flat on week, CDS rises to record high, IBEX trades near lowest since Mar ’09, Italian 10 yr rises to just shy of highest since Feb, Italian and French CDS at most expensive since Jan
2) Initial Jobless Claims again surprises to upside, 4 week avg rises to most since Jan
3) Existing Home Sales, Starts and NAHB builder survey all below expectations
4) Purchase apps fall to 6 week low
5) NY and Philly mfr’g surveys fall but components mixed
6) Industrial Production flat m/o/m
7) China says home prices fall in 37 cities in March, up from 27 in Feb
8) Japan says print as much yen as it takes to get more inflation, a step closer to the day of reckoning for the JGB market!?

Category: Markets

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6 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (4/20/12)”

  1. machinehead says:

    Positives: ’7) Brazil and India both cut rates as focus more on growth than inflation’

    These factoids equally could be painted as negatives. Brazil and India are slashing rates because growth is sliding — exactly what Ben B. was doing in 2008.

    And that year didn’t turn out so great …

  2. mathman says:

    please view this video and understand what’s happening so you aren’t surprised later:

    http://www.democracynow.org/2012/4/20/exclusive_national_security_agency_whistleblower_william

  3. Hurricaner says:

    guess we need to keep an eye on the ibex next week. if it breaks lower, it’s going to take the rest of Europe with it, and of course, the US indexes will be right behind.
    i find it absolutely unfathomable that the average person’s savings (i.e., 401(k), IRAs, etc) are now so closely linked to things that are so far away from our own lives. The Spanish stock market…CDS spreads on debt from Spain and Italy…comments from German finance ministers…..
    part of me wants to believe that “it will all work out,” focus on the long-term since i don’t need the money for years – and the other part of me wants to sell everything on Monday, take the cash, and shove it under the bed (because after MF Global, how can you trust your broker?). Of course, I won’t do that (the bit about shoving the cash under the bed)…but I just can’t go through this crap again. Waking up in the morning with futures down 200 points because some German finance minister farted the wrong way…or the bond traders decided to push yields up today (even though they pushed them down the day before). Watching the markets crater mid-day, getting that sick feeling at another 250 point loss…I think the last two market swoons have really fractured my risk tolerance….which is odd, given that the market has essentially “come back” both times.
    Sigh. Just a mindless, bored rant on a fri nite.

  4. DeDude says:

    From the SEC piece:

    “Under federal law, the SEC isn’t permitted to listen to live wiretaps. “I don’t mean this in a dismissive way,” Wadhwa says. “But the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has access to wiretaps, but the SEC doesn’t? And somehow you expect us to oversee Wall Street?”

    So it took the SEC a year after the defense got the wiretap information from FBI before the SEC could get access to them. Does anybody think that maybe a lot of interesting leads from those phone conversations have gone cold and become useless, when the accused has a year to warn off his bodies?. Next time someone is unhappy with the SEC, consider the fact that lawmakers have put handcuffs on these cops and refuse to increase their budget although the government actually makes money on the agency.

  5. @DeDude: if you are klr, please email me.

    BEA announces Q1 GDP next week. The TRI gauges the upper bound to be 3.8%. Due to ongoing high pump prices and subsequent waning New Car Sales, Q2 will be 2.9% max pace. Eleven days prior to the Election, BEA will announce Q3 GDP of 3.4%. Four days prior, BLS will announce a 7.8% Unemployment Rate.

    Hussman, Schiller, Rosenberg & Achuthan still await “the big one”…

    TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm