Succinct summation of the week’s events.
Positives:
1) German IFO business confidence and ZEW investor economic confidence both point to a teflon economy right now in light of debt drama with their neighbors
2) Spain sold 12 mo, 18 mo, 2 yr and 10 yr debt successfully, yields hold steady near highest since Dec
3) UK retail sales and jobs data both better than expected
4) US Retail Sales in March broad based and above estimates but core figure ex auto’s, gasoline and building materials (thanks weather) were touch light
5) Housing construction permits rise to most since Sept ’08 led by multi family
6) Refi apps rise to 5 week high as mortgage rates drop near lows again
7) Brazil and India both cut rates as focus more on growth than inflation
8) Shanghai index closes at 5 week high on growing speculation of another RRR cut
9) Positive for Japanese exporters as yen weakens after BoJ deputy Gov says they will print all the yen it takes to get to 1% inflation.
Negatives:
1) While Spanish yields flat on week, CDS rises to record high, IBEX trades near lowest since Mar ’09, Italian 10 yr rises to just shy of highest since Feb, Italian and French CDS at most expensive since Jan
2) Initial Jobless Claims again surprises to upside, 4 week avg rises to most since Jan
3) Existing Home Sales, Starts and NAHB builder survey all below expectations
4) Purchase apps fall to 6 week low
5) NY and Philly mfr’g surveys fall but components mixed
6) Industrial Production flat m/o/m
7) China says home prices fall in 37 cities in March, up from 27 in Feb
8) Japan says print as much yen as it takes to get more inflation, a step closer to the day of reckoning for the JGB market!?
What's been said:
Discussions found on the web: