Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Personal Consumption within Q1 GDP rises 2.9%, better than expected and the best since Q4 ’10. Helped also by weather, residential construction jumps 19.1% in Q1.
2) Pending Home Sales in Mar up 4.1% vs est of 1.0%.
3) Mar New Home Sales 9k better than expected and Feb revised up by 40k.
4) Case/Shiller Feb home price index rises m/o/m after 9 straight mo’s of declines.
5) April UoM confidence rises to best since Feb ’11 and 1 yr inflation expectations fall to 3.2%, the lowest since Dec.
6) Richmond mfr’g survey the only region so far to see gain from Mar.
7) China HSBC flash PMI up slightly to 49.1 from 48.3 but still below 50 for 6 straight mo’s.
8) European markets stabilize after successful bond auctions from Spain and Italy. Portugal’s 10 yr yield falls to lowest since Sept.
9) French consumer confidence at highest since Dec ’10 as election narrows to two.
10) UK consumer confidence at best in 10 mo’s.

Negatives:

1) Q1 real GDP grows only 2.2% and nominal GDP only 3.7% as defense spending falls sharply, equipment and software cap ex slows, commercial construction drops and real final sales lackluster.
2) Durable Goods orders in March disappoint.
3) Initial Jobless Claims above 380k for 3rd straight week, 4 week avg now at highest since early Jan.
4) Conference Board Consumer Confidence falls slightly and buying intentions of all major items (home, car, major appliances) fall across the board.
5) May German consumer confidence falls to 5 mo low.
6) French consumer spending drops more than expected in Mar.
7) Euro zone economic confidence matches lowest since Nov ’09 and mfr’g and services composite index drops to 5 mo low.
8) UK economy officially in a double dip recession.
9) Italian business confidence weakest since Oct ’09.
10) Spanish unemployment in Q1 rises to 24.4%.
11) BoJ said will print another 10T yen but dilutes move by saying 1% inflation is close by.
12) Bernanke says he still has more magic monetary pixie dust to sprinkle if needed.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (4/27/2012)”

  1. mathman says:

    http://landdestroyer.blogspot.com/2012/04/next-us-president-will-be.html

    The Next US President Will Be . . . .
    . . . . the Fortune 500. Why no matter who you vote for, nothing will ever change.
    by Tony Cartalucci

    (they basically all work for the same corporate interests)

  2. techy says:

    Repost from another thread:

    Why is europe economic collapse not possible given the political realities(non-austerity)?

    Unless ala USA-2008/09, govts everywhere are going to step in and backstop, anyone thinks this is not possible in europe?

    My gut is telling me that maybe this is the time to buy some out of the money puts to limit my long side risks?

  3. patfla says:

    Amazon’s net falls to under 1% and its stock pops 15.75%. I know the story is more complicated, but you still gotta love it.

    I imagine that a lot of that 15.75% came from ‘market structure.’

  4. slowkarma says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-27/equity-fund-redemptions-in-april-are-largest-in-17-years.html

    Bloomberg says equity fund redemptions in April are the largest in 17 years. I wonder if people were watching the market rise all during the Q1, leading to that personal consumption increase…and the redemptions when things started to get shaggy.

  5. techy says:

    patfla: I have lost hundreds of dollars over the last 2-3 years buying put spread of AMZN. I still own some of them. The old saying becomes: “Market will stay irrational longer than I can stay in my positions”

  6. Before one discounts a 2.2% Q1 as disappointing, one should remember the economy is facing a 1.1% headwind in the form of high petroleum prices and GDI is running @ 4%.

    Adding in this week’s forward-looking data, TRI gauges Q2 to have an upper bound of 3.5%. Eleven days prior to the Election, BEA will announce Q3 GDP of 3.6%. Four days prior, BLS will announce a 7.7% Unemployment Rate.

    TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm

  7. Mountaincat says:

    “Mathman’s” link to the “landdestroyer” article(the next US president will be) is the most important read of 2012!!!