With ISM manufacturing, ADP jobs report, ISM services and government payrolls all released each of the next 4 days, the question is what does the market want to see. What I believe it doesn’t want to see is exactly what it loved in the 1990′s, a Goldilocks Economy, not too hot, not too cold. In the version now, not too hot is an economy that can’t gain enough traction to generate stronger job growth and a sustainable recovery and not too cold is an economy not weak enough to get more monetary drugs from the Fed (only asset prices like that). In Asia, China’s manufacturing PMI rose .2 pts to 53.3, the best since Mar ’11 but was slightly below expectations of 53.6. This state enterprise weighted index is in contrast to the weakness seen in the private sector HSBC one. The RBAustralia unexpectedly cut rates by 50 bps and bond yields are moving to record lows in response. Only 25 bps were expected and the RBA said “economic conditions have been somewhat weaker than expected, while inflation has moderated.” Coincident with the yen reaching a 10 week high vs the US$, the Nikkei fell to an 11 week low overnight, both in the face of more QE from the BoJ. Europe is closed except in the UK and UK manufacturing PMI fell to a 4 month low at 50.5 vs 51.9 in Mar and vs expectations of 51.5.

Category: MacroNotes

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One Response to “For stocks, Goldilocks no longer good IMO”

  1. VennData says:

    Just because Keysian and global central bank stimulus pulled us out of the Great Recession (which is why global equity markets rose – corporate profits and US GDP rose to record highs) doesn’t mean future equity price increases will need stimulus.

    Further equity price gains will increase along with corporate profit growth, but will be slightly tempered by rising interest rates and rising hiring costs.