Rosenberg, exactly 5 years ago today in May 2007:
click for full report


Invictus here.

In my Barron’s Big Money post, I mentioned attending a small dinner in October 2007 at which David Rosenberg was the speaker. In comments, Hamann asked if I could provide any additional insight into what he had shared that night.

While I cannot produce his presentation from that evening, I have found, and posted in Think Tank, his 55-page deck from May 2007. This report is exactly 5 years old today.

There are many interesting slides -  Page 8 for starters. And virtually the entire section on the housing market, Page 27 in particular. The whole deck is worth a browse. (I’m considering updating as many charts as I can to incorporate the last five years; should be an interesting exercise. Will post here if/when I get that done.)

In keeping with Rosie’s devilish sense of humor, the deck’s title – Soft Now, Hard Later? (referring, of course, to economic “landings”) – got meetings off on a lighthearted note (about the only lighthearted part of those meetings), as the requisite Pfizer/Viagra jokes circulated among a giggling audience. That was about the extent of what they found humorous once the session got underway. And, for the record, word came from on high that the title was too provocative and needed to be changed, which it was. Absolutely no sense of humor in those ivory towers.



Category: Analysts, Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate, Research

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “In Retrospect, It Was No Joke”

  1. Futuredome says:

    There is no decoupling. Growth is hotter than the BEA is reporting. Clearly. My company even reported to me that. Revisements up will happen.

    I would add 1% to each annualized quarter for the last 7-8 quarters just to give you some perspective.

  2. Molesworth says:

    Wondering how they came up with the data on his p25, the growth of employment at collection agencies and credit bureaus.
    BLS is cited but I can’t find historical data of employment.
    Interested in seeing your updating of the data points.

    Invictus: One can drill down through the BLS data to get to collection agencies (60561440) and credit bureaus (60561450), both under “Professional & Business Services.”
    Employment > One Screen Data Search > Professional & Business Services > Find

  3. howardoark says:

    If you’re wondering about the update of the above chart

    Growth slowed to nothing at the beginning 2011, but we didn’t fall into a recession.

  4. As late as this January, David Rosenberg was still telling his clients the Great Recession would last ’til at least 2020 and there would be a series of three or four additional Recessions during this time frame. Now his paywall is offline. Why? It’s ‘cuz since September 2011 his clients have missed the 23% rise in stocks. While the best rally in markets was taking place, he kept warning them to hunker down…

    Au contraire, TRI saw the same bad data last Summer, but gave the “all clear” on Sept 26th when it was clear this was just an anomaly.

    TRI chart: