Looks like an interesting day coming up on Monday . . .

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

18 Responses to “Look Out Below, French Election Edition”

  1. dwee says:

    Somebody ground this man.

  2. Ducky62 says:

    Couldn’t possibly be the French election. My understanding is that obvious future events are already “priced in” to markets. lol

  3. Mike in Nola says:

    Greek elections are more likely to produce instability. Merkel and the bankers need stooges in Athens to keep going the hidden bailout of Northern European banks via giving Athens money to pay the banks. No stooges = no payments to banks = Germany, France, etc have to bailout the banks.

    France’s actions will be circumscribed by real economics and Hollande is actually going to push the ECB to do more Fed-like QE, so stocks should do better under him than Sarko and austerity, except that the 1%er’s won’t get to keep as much of their ill gotten gains.

    Don’t see any reason to fear a guy who worked in a McDonalds and likes Big Macs. Looks more like a Clintonesque figure to me. His acceptance speech was pretty reassuring to the other side, though truly French: “We are not just any country; we are France!”

  4. Expat says:

    Greece was doomed whatever the outcome of the election. If an anti-bailout, anti-EU government comes in, then perhaps we can get eliminate that third-world country from Europe that much faster before sending them yet more money.

    France is the same. Hollande’s policies are a joke, of course, but Sarkozy’s misrule got us here in the first place. If Hollande can precipitate some sort of disaster, then we can take a sharp, short shock and grow from there. This prolonged agony is wrenching apart France’s economy and social structure. The worst solution will probably be if Hollande takes office and then realizes his policies are impossible to implement and are therefore ignored (think Obama and “Change” when he realized that the President controls very little in America).

    Germans are probably wondering how they managed to get themselves into this situation. Financing a bunch of countries and peoples they have traditionally disliked and for whom they have had little if any respect for centuries! Of course, they choose to ignore the wealth they stripped away from those same countries.

    Maybe Africa can bail out Europe with loans guaranteed by the EDB and co-signed by the Chinese who back their support with EU bonds.

  5. PeterR says:

    “Real Options Week” to open with a bang!

    Please file your itinerary Barry.

  6. denim says:

    Future date of June 12? June 12 is George H. W. Bush’s birthday….that is the real reason, not some French election.

  7. dead hobo says:

    BR sighed:

    Looks like an interesting day coming up on Monday . . .

    reply:
    ———–
    Yes, but probably for it’s lack of anything significant. Of course, those who study the true meaning of Sell In May and consult doctors of economics for guidance will be flummoxed, as usual.

    Friday was mostly one big margin call for oil that went bad and caused the most liquid investments (stocks) to go into free fall. The oil clowns (oil cattle?) choked on another big one and will probably keep enjoying their new slurpee for another 10% or so. This will create stock volatility, but ultimately be a good thing. The muppets (great word, thanks) will be more timid about getting a new opportunity to choke down another rough one soon, and oil should remain stable for several months afterward. The cash should go into equities since business that isn’t oil oriented should do very well. The punishment the oil cattle is taking now will finance the end of year rally.

  8. Ted Kavadas says:

    While the European economic problems are certainly very worrisome, I continue to see a multitude of highly problematic conditions in the U.S., embedded in the financial markets and economy. For those interested, here is my post on the subject from Wednesday:

    http://economicgreenfield.blogspot.com/2012/05/building-financial-danger-may-2-2012.html

  9. AtlasRocked says:

    Socialism is a political fraud scheme to create the illusion of immediate societal health by creating massive debt for the next generation to pay.

  10. ConscienceofaConservative says:

    Also great op-ed in today’s FT on MMT. Have to say, the MMT guys have the best explanation on why Fed “money printing” didn’t increasing lending or spark the big inflation.

    http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c53082f8-9543-11e1-ad38-00144feab49a.html#axzz1uBgkPazb

  11. Moopheus says:

    A quick search reveals that one could stand a good chance of making some money betting against one of your “look out below” calls, at least on the time-scale of weeks.

  12. financialchicken says:

    I’m in the Greece matters more camp for this one. It was much more of a surprise.

    Even so, there are some concerns on the horizon:

    http://thatretiredguy.blogspot.pt/2012/05/merkeland.html

  13. Joe Friday says:

    Expat,

    France is the same. Hollande’s policies are a joke, of course…

    Oh, I dunno.

    Hollande wants MORE government spending, an INCREASE in the minimum wage, and to hire 60,000 additional teachers, to stimulate the French economy.

    He wants to RAISE taxes on the Rich & Corporate earning over one million euros annually to help pay down the debt.

    He wants to LOWER the retirement age from 62 to 60 for many workers which will open-up jobs for the unemployed.

    Sounds like a plan to me.

    At least a FAR, FAR, better plan than the RightWing agenda here and in Europe.

  14. VennData says:

    We HAVE Bush’s low taxes, it isn’t helping. Don’t you idiots see that?

    Don’t you see that further lowering taxes for the rich is just going to let them stash that money in more bonds. Don’t you see that cutting taxes for the rich just raises the price of things rich people buy? How can GOP voter continue to fall for this nonsensical supply side rubbish? You know, I should say I’m glad you goofs missed the Obama rally. You’re gong to miss the next 30% to if you don’t throw off these ideological shackles.

    Just like the day traders that learned that you can’t make money day trading, the GOP, supply side, Zero Hedge, David Rosenberg ‘the end of America is here’ ‘ folks are going to be left behind, with their retirement savings demolished when interest rates rise.

    The market has already recovered today.

  15. Expat says:

    @Joe Friday: I assume you are American. I am French, so I welcome you to contribute some of your income to pay for Hollande’s policies. I think all the incumbents should be booted out, but where can you find sane, rational, honest men to hold political office?

  16. Joe Friday says:

    Expat,

    If “Hollande’s policies” are successful, they will pay for his policies.

    There are plenty of examples where doing the OPPOSITE of what the RightWingers, the Rich & Corporate, the financiers, and the ‘Very Serious People’, all over the globe have been advocating (which has been a dismal miserable FAILURE) has been successful.

  17. Expat says:

    Joe Friday,
    Don’t get me wrong, I think Sarkozy should be tried and executed for crimes against humanity along with every elected official who has held office worldwide for the past thirty years, but Hollande’s proposals are plain silly. We cannot afford to have the retirement age dropped to sixty in France, especially since many of those concerned don’t work much to begin with.

    I am a right wing socialist, which means I believe people are inherently corrupt and inept. Many need social safety nets and support. Education and health care should be national and free. Industries, especially unproductive ones like finance, should be heavily regulated.

    There are no right-wing, left-wing solutions any more. I chuckled when I read that the Republicans passed a bill to preserve defense spending but cut just about every social program they could name (Rick Perry can name only two of them). These are not public servants; these are war-mongering fascists.

    But Hollande’s campaign promises are a farce and cannot be implemented. This will lead to strikes and acts of civil disobedience.

    We drove ourselves off a cliff. No amount of tossing out the seats to lighten the load or pushing madly on the gas will save us from some sort of crash. So, pick your poison. Death by taxes or Death by Goldman Sachs.

    Some say the world will end in fire. Some say in ice. As for me, I think either will suffice.

  18. Joe Friday says:

    Expat,

    Of COURSE France can afford to lower their retirement age, just as we can afford to lower the retirement age here in America as well. What neither Europe or America CAN afford is the ongoing Socialism for the Rich & Corporate and harsh Laissez-Faire vulture capitalism for the Middle-class, Working Poor and Poor, resulting in an ever-widening inequality.

    I suppose I’ll have to keep repeating this until the cows come home, but the issue is NOT spending, it is LACK OF REVENUE.

    Look at the Scandinavian countries. They’re not in recession. They don’t have high unemployment. They don’t have huge budget deficits. They also did not partake in massive tax cuts for the Rich & Corporate.

    They have higher Standards of Living, larger Middle-classes, less Poverty, lower infant mortalities, greater longevity, and on and on.