Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Initial Jobless Claims total 367k, below 370k for 2nd week after previous 3 weeks above 380k.
2) UoM confidence in May rises 1.4 pts to best since Jan ’08, one yr inflation expectations fall to lowest since Dec ’10.
3) Gasoline prices fall another .06 on the week to $3.73, the lowest since late Feb according to AAA.
4) JOLTS data reveal most amount of job openings since July ’08.
5) US exports rise to record high in March but so do imports mostly due to petro.
6) NFIB small business optimism index up 2 pts to highest since Dec ’07.
7) For those looking to buy a home or refi, avg 30 yr mortgage rate falls to new low at 3.78% according to Bankrate.com.
8) US PPI unexpectedly falls .2% m/o/m and y/o/y gain of 1.9% below 2% for 1st time since Oct ’09 (core rate though remains elevated), April Import Prices fall more than expected.
9) Factory Orders and IP in Germany in March surprise to upside, somewhat dated data and likely to change but points to resilience of its economy.
10) Chinese CPI falls to 3.4% y/o/y gain in April from 3.6% and PPI outright falls for 2nd straight month.
11) Job gains in Australia and Canada well above expectations.

Negatives:

1) In response to chaos in Greece, newly issued Greek bonds fall to new lows, Greek stocks fall 11% on the week to lowest since 1992. Hugo Chavez shouldn’t be the Greek electorate’s role model.
2) Spain’s 10 yr yield rises back to 6%, 5 yr CDS up at record high, IBEX index trades to lowest since ’03 but bounces off it.
3) Spain wants its banks to write off another 30b euros but market wanted 50b, rip the band aid off already I say.
4) In China, retail sales, IP, money supply, bank loans, imports and exports all rise less than expected confirming further the slowdown.
5) India IP in March falls 3.5% vs expectations of a gain of 1.7%.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

4 Responses to “Succinct summation of week’s events (05/11/2012)”

  1. Boock,

    nice run down of ‘the happenings’ (as per usual)

    ~~

    and, a thought, for the Weekend..

    By Servando Gonzalez
    theintelhub.com
    May 11, 2012

    A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague.
    —Marcus Tullius Cicero.

    http://theintelhub.com/2012/05/11/why-i-hate-republicans-including-tea-partiers-even-more-than-i-hate-democrats/

  2. The highest monthly GDP in this business cycle was 4.0% in April 2010. My TRI suggests today the old high will be smashed in Feb/2013 as its last eight monthly upgrades of Year 2012 now transition to doing the same for Year 2013.

    Adding in this week’s forward-looking data, TRI gauges Q2 GDP to have an upper bound of 3.2%. Eleven days prior to the Election, BEA will announce Q3 GDP of not more than 3.0%. Four days prior, BLS will announce a 7.7% Unemployment Rate.

    FOMC will announce first rate increase in Aug/2013 upon UR finally retreating below 7.0% … forget about the “late 2014″ charade. 5-yr mortgage rates should be up 2% by mid-2015.

    TRI charts: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm

  3. Joe Friday says:

    RIP: Carroll Shelby

    The only vehicle I’ve driven that was hairier than the Shelby Cobra was the original 930 Porsche Turbo. The Cobra could get squirrely every time you shifted at full-throttle, but you could do a countdown as the turbo spun-up on the 930, and the G-forces were so strong when the boost kicked-in, I used to bet passengers they couldn’t touch the dashboard.

  4. ilsm says:

    Bock,

    The gy with the most seats is on the other side of the spectrum from Hugo, but likely won’t for a coalition. Needless editorial can get from Rush.

    The pllars of the city. Cicero, civitas, finally was eliminated by the second triums after Julius was assasinated. He sat in his garden stroking his beard with his left hand………………….