“Individual Mandate to be ruled unconstitutional by the US Supreme Court”

Source: Intrade


As I have said over the years (repeatedly) this is the sort of thing that Intrade gets wrong.

Futures markets are really a focus group unto themselves: When the group is something less representative of the target market, they get it wrong with alarming frequency. Indeed, the further the traders are as a group to the target decision makers/voters, the worse their track record.

Here are the calls that I tracked over the years that were awfully wrong – IMO, it is absolutely due to the fact that the traders as a group have no correlation to the decision-makers:

GOP Retention of Senate (2006)
Michael Jackson Trial Results
Morgan Stanley CEO Purcell resignation
Howard Dean’s Iowa Primary
pre-Election 2004
Election day trading frenzy

Today’s SCOTUS decision is a classic example of why Prediction markets have minimal value.

The Wisdom of Crowds is wildly overstated . . .



Why Prediction Markets Fail   (January 11th, 2008)

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures   (February 14th, 2007)

The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up! (June 13th, 2005)

Category: Markets, Really, really bad calls

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

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