Category: Investing, Think Tank

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

7 Responses to “Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice (part 2)”

  1. [...] Part 2 of Sleepwalking Toward a Precipice just went up in the Think tank — be sure to check it out. [...]

  2. NoKidding says:

    “But, all countries can’t devalue at once”.

    Relative to what? If all countries simultaneously increase their currency in circulation through gifts or spending, then all will simultaneously devalue at once just fine – relative to metals, oil, real estate, and eventually labor cost.

    I think the intended message is that everyone can’t use devaluation to generate trade surplusses at once. True enough. But the actual words don’t say that.

  3. steveh18 says:

    other than it being illegible, it’s great

  4. James P says:

    Something about the Indo-Aryan expansion. Farmers displaced hunter-gatherers as farming supported at least 30 times the population density. That expansion ended at the California coast and will rebound as resource extraction becomes increasingly unable to support population growth without shortages. Population growth has been the number one driver of growing economies aided and abetted by technological gains in efficiencies. The idea of population decrease seems to be unthinkable to any economist because growth is the only cure to any problem for the schooled econ. I have said it before on this site, there is hardly a problem in the world that wouldn’t be mitigated by halving the population. Unless you own or are employed at a factory the makes, say, toilet paper. At some point the socio-economic paradigm will have to explore the calculations of a steady state. But more likely we will see a peaking population at the same time that resource extraction fails due to some catastrophe and a global economic implosion. The only question is how soon is the future approaching. They say peak population could occur around 2050. It doesn’t look like any intelligent intervention will occur on a necessarily global level. As I look at the decisions made by my neighbors (and who they vote for) I don’t expect much in the way of local solutions either.

  5. When precipice-part1 was posted I didn’t comment ‘cuz to me it seemed like just another here comes the double-dip article to draw out the McDoomers for page views. I had just extended the visible horizon for the TRENDLines Recession Indicator to 2035 (from 2017) and the prospect was dim (Technical Recession in 2031) but not alarming:

    Many in the media were running around with a nasty infliction of Euro-envy gleefully predicting its imminent demise. Not gonna happen. Many others saw another 20% downturn in housing prices. Not gonna happen. Hussman, Achuthan (ECRI) & Rosenberg still await confirmation of recessions and a depression. Ain’t gonna happen. And as always idiot Marc Faber awaits his decade long prediction of collapse of the USDollar and WWIII to come to fruition…

    Today I see things a tad different. Albeit, the there’s no substantial change in the positions of the aforementioned media whores: defined as pundits invited to create controversy and volatility … ‘cuz they’re morons … not correct. It’s nothing more than a quest for ratings … not debate.

    Founded by the Barrel Meter & Gas Pump models’ analysis, the TRI is forecasting a collapse of the auto sector in 2019 upon gasoline surpassing $4.73/gal ($130/barrel crude). The Debt Wall predicts a Treasuries Crisis in 2021. And the TRI’s animal-spirits-plus are projecting a multi-decadal contraction commencing in 2024 with absolutely no sign of resurrection … mostly induced by a permanent regime of triple-digit crude costs ($212/barrel). But this is not just about what would be the first high oil price forced USA Recession. It is the coming together of a perfect storm – a general malaise encompassing several sectors including education.

    It is not a precipice. Au contraire, the USA is a frog in incrementally warmed water…

    the charts:

  6. Hey James P, I heard Malthus being paged to the white Courtesy Phone..

    I’m not sure He’s available..

    you don’t mind picking up for him, do you?

  7. James P says:

    Malthus’ vision was limited to procreative progression. He looked at how that progression could be limited by circumstances but he did not consider (200 years ago) evolutionary adaption. Not all species are lemmings.