Fear of default and/or the collapse of the Euro is driving current yields. However, a look at long term history reveals that Spain has had numerous other panic driven yield spikes. Their 10yr Bond yield reflected investor fears in 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851,1867, 1872, 1882 and 1936.
Déjà vu ?
Source: Global Financial Data
Thanks, Ralph !
Ralph Dillon rdillon@globalfinancialdata.com
Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Nothing new under El Sol?
Yeah I guess it really puts things into perspective to see that the last time there was a big spike in yields was when the country was being taken over by a fascist dictator.
Then again it could be reminiscent of the prolonged rise that looks to peak in 1982-83.
‘[Spain's] 10yr Bond yield reflected investor fears in 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851,1867, 1872, 1882 and 1936.’
This sentence is a euphemism that approaches deliberate deception. Reinhart and Rogoff listed Spanish DEFAULTS in the years 1809, 1820, 1831, 1834, 1851, 1867, 1872, 1882, 1936-1939.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_default
Sell side lugs, gotta love ‘em, huh?
This surely makes those Franco days look great. Democracy is the problem. Viva el dictador?
Consider if you go back a bit further that Spain went bankrupt several times in the 17th century the first time in 1576 and again in 1596 1607 at least . They had hit a bonanza in the New World but like many countries with oil managed to fritter it away with things like the Armada and other wars such as the one over the Netherlands . If include this period we see that Spain had a history of very rough economic times in the past. This was while the Hapsburgs were in charge of Spain (and Portugal for a while), and the charts start after the end of the Napoleanic wars and rise of the Bourbon monarchy.
[...] - Spanish bond yields, 1821-2012. [...]
Deja vu? Get out the Air-wick, kids.
Virtually all of the examples can be attributed to war. The aftermath of Napoleon, the Carlist wars and the Civil War of 1936 – a minor point that I believe Rogoff and Reinhart might have missed also.
You’re OK in your own ‘hood, Barry, but every time you venture east of New Jersey…