Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Think Tank

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

5 Responses to “A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy”

  1. Thomaspin says:

    This is why acemia does not cut it:

    ” Thus, the yield curve is generally upward sloping. This is especially the case in the end of recessions and at the earlystages of economic expansions, when short term interest rates are at relatively low levels.”

    So with the yield curve flattening fast right now, are we to believe we are at the end of a recovery? Please.

  2. boveri says:

    If I were smart enough this would have been a perfect place to demonstrate my ignorance.

  3. MoreLiver says:

    Thomaspin: if the zero would not be the limit, the yield curve would be much, much steeper. I’ve seen some interesting work on that. As a side note, yield curve inversions have a 70-80% hit rate in predicting major economic problems, which is way better than the alternatives. I would not throw the idea away lightly.

  4. VennData says:

    Whomever invented Scribd should invent another one, then hang themselves.

  5. blackjaquekerouac says:

    the only economic formulaic expression thati i recall is the term “i” (for inflation) with a little “e” in the upper right hand corner (standing for expectations of inflation–and being in the upper right hand corner meaning EXPONENTIAL.) if actual inflation appears suddenly and massively in the Midwest the folks there will never “be allowed” to forget it. Since such inflation has never been experienced “in the Heartland” ever in history one can understand how…should it occur…”no one saw it coming.” Nothing Happy Talk can’t cure of course.