The first chart shows that federal withholding-tax collections declined to an annual growth rate of 3.4% in the second quarter from a rate of 5.1% in the first quarter.
However, due to the way the calendar works, that deceleration is likely exaggerated. The second chart shows the second-derivative of the growth rate. It plots the Q/Q rate each day for the quarter ending on that date. And since the nature of the calendar causes this calculation to also be spiky, I have add a 10-bar moving average to smooth things out (red line).
So, as you can see, the true growth-rate looks to be steady at around 4%. That’s a respectable rate, though nothing to write home about.
We have seen a number of economic indicators portraying slowing-growth.
However, the withholding-tax data is not yet exhibiting any sign of job losses.
Note: The first two quarters of 2012 on the first chart look much stronger than those of 2011, but that is only because there was a big tax-cut in 2011.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.