June Payrolls totaled 80k, 20k less than expected and well below the ADP whisper. The two prior months were revised down by a net 1k. The private sector added 84k jobs (13k from goods producing, 71k from services) vs expectations of a gain of 106k. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.2% as the 128k increase in the household survey was basically offset by the 156k increase in the size of the labor force. The all in U6 rate rose .1% to 14.9%. Two positives within the report was the .1 uptick in the Avg workweek and the .3% gain m/o/m in avg hourly earnings which comes to 2% y/o/y. The participation rate remained unchanged at 63.8% but the avg duration of unemployment ticked up to 39.9 from 39.7. Bottom line, the 3rd straight month of job growth below 100k is pathetic with an average of 78k in that time. The weakness in April and May were likely due to some weather give back from strength over the winter but June is more likely being negatively influenced from the growing global economic moderation that will likely intensify in the 2nd half, thus furthering the malaise in the labor market. While a figure like today will only invite more FOMC deliberations, if only cheap money was the magic elixir to what ails us, the global economy would be roaring. Deleveraging however is the only real, long lasting cure.

Category: Economy, Employment, MacroNotes, Think Tank

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One Response to “Payroll growth pathetic”

  1. victor says:

    At the beginning of the recession (Dec-07) the labor participation rate stood at 66%. It is now (Jun-12) at 63.8% although the labor force increases theoretically by some 100k plus/month. So, the infrequently mentioned U6 is a horrible 14.9%. Worst hit of all by far: the forgotten in our inner cities.