Succinct summation of week’s events:
Positives:
1) Initial Jobless Claims total 374k, 11k less than expected and below 380k for the 1st time since mid May.
2) Within the June jobs report, avg workweek ticks up .1 and avg hourly earnings up 2.0% y/o/y, matching the best in 6 mo’s.
3) June vehicle sales total 14.05mm SAAR, a touch better than estimates of 13.9mm.
4) China cuts rates again. I include only them in the positives from a short term economic standpoint because they still have room to influence behavior thru policy.
5) China PMI services index rises to 56.7 from 55.2.
6) China’s PMI mfr’g index falls to 50.2 from 50.4 but was slightly above the est of 49.9.
7) India’s June PMI up slightly to 55 from 54.8
8) Japan’s Q2 Tankan report at -1 better than expectations of -4.
9) Ireland is back!, at least for 3 mo’s as they sell short term bills for 1st time since Sept ’10.
Negatives:
1) US payrolls in June climb only 80k vs est of 100k bringing 3 month avg to 78k vs ytd avg of 150k and vs 153k avg in 2011.
2) ISM mfr’g falls below 50 for the 1st time since July ’09 at 49.7. New Orders and Exports within drop below 50.
3) ISM services index at 52.1 is the weakest since Jan ’10 and below est of 53. Export Orders fall below 50.
4) Notwithstanding a new low in mortgage rates, refi apps fall 8.4% to a 4 week low and purchase apps rise just .6%.
5) Spanish 10 yr yield round trips, back to near 7% level of last Thurs before EU summit results. Italian bonds come close and the German 2 yr yield closes below zero for 1st time.
6) Mfr’g PMI’s in Taiwan and South Korea fall below 50.
7) The BoE and ECB again spit in the wind hoping this time they won’t get wet.
Category: Markets
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
The BLS is flawed, badly flawed. Overall private sector employment was at trend. Simply was. Remove the stupid seasonal adjustments and you get a trend more in line with the ADP. Sorry, but this will be revised upward over the next 3 years.
Simply is what it is. I suspect July will move up anyways on the BLS.
Your number 4 negative is troubling to me. I do not see how it is a negative given that the credit scores of most people w/ mortgages can not meet current standards.
That fact is the result of the fact that the current recession, the Great Recession, has not been recognized for what it is by both the political and pundit class, is the result of a credit bubble bursting. If it is recognized it is to deny it, which is the position of President Obama, the Dummycrats and the American Taliban, aka the Republican party. Not a single one of these political and pundit entities is willing to spread the loss of credit expansion around which would entail allowing bankruptcy for mortgages on first home, the only class of assets which can not be brought to bankruptcy court for relieve.
(via cryptogon)
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/drone-hijacking/all/
Drone Hijacking? That’s Just the Start of GPS Troubles
(from the article)
“What’s worse, the experiment at White Sands shows that drone-jacking is “just the tip of the iceberg of a much bigger security issue we have in this country,” according to Logan Scott, a GPS industry consultant who has worked for defense giants like Lockheed Martin.
In other words, it’s not only about drones, it’s GPS in general that is not safe.
The Global Positioning System, commonly referred to as GPS, is a space-based satellite navigation system. It’s what allows you to get turn-by-turn directions to the mini-mart in your automobile. But most people don’t know that it also has countless other crucial applications. Among others, it’s the backbone of the global air traffic system. It is also used to control the power grid, to power banking operations (for instance, ATMs depend on it) and to keep oil platforms in position. And virtually all communications systems, like the world’s cellular networks, rely on it.”
(further down)
“GPS is also free, unauthenticated and unencrypted. Its open nature has been its biggest strength. Now, it could be its biggest flaw.”
“The core problem is that we’ve got a GPS infrastructure which is based on a security architecture out of the 1970s,” Scott tells Danger Room. “From a security point of view, if you look at GPS’s current status, is more or less equivalent to operating computers without firewalls, with no basic checks.”
(there’s more)
Okay moderators, if you don’t want to know anything except as it regards making money – then i guess none of this impacts you since YOU don’t apparently rely on GPS and YOU don’t have to worry about prescription drugs (in this example) –
(This, on the heels of the Glaxo-Smith-Klein scandal)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2170317/Drug-giant-probed-disclosing-15-000-patient-death-reports-Roche-investigation-UK-watchdogs-80-000-adverse-reactions.html#ixzz200vSuKyt
Drug giant probed for not disclosing 15,000 patient death reports: Roche under investigation by UK watchdogs after 80,000 ‘adverse reactions’
“One of the world’s biggest drug companies is at the centre of an urgent investigation after failing to disclose reports that 15,000 people died while taking its medicines.
Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche failed to pass on a further 65,000 reports of suspected side effects that were recorded by patients.
All of the reactions took place in the United States over the past 15 years with medicines used to treat breast cancer, bowel cancer, hepatitis B, and skin and eye conditions.” (there’s more)