Interesting chart out of ADP.

Looks like ADP is trying to repair a bit of their reputation as a proxy for BLS:

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click for bigger graphic

Source: ADP

 

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

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5 Responses to “Will ADP (Finally) Get It Right?”

  1. [...] Will ADP get it right this time?  (Big Picture) [...]

  2. cjcpa says:

    When I saw the headline, I thought:
    Hussman was right.

    I know, it’s evolving, the end of this play has not been written yet.
    But he has been saying that employment will slow, then turn negative.
    So far, the slowing continues.

    I will keep watching, with most of my money in the short term bond fund, and not “reaching for yield” as I have been so tempted to do, (Barry).

    cjc

  3. Dima says:

    What does it benefit ADP in getting it right? Nobody is paying them to do that. ADP numbers are about as beleivable as NAR numbers on home sales. The fact that people actually believe that the numbers are something other than advertising proves month over month that the advertising is working very well.

  4. Onthemoney says:

    Went to the ADP website and looked back as far as the chart goes (Jan 2000). Interestingly, the discrepancy between ADP and BLS figures is widest at cyclical turning points.

    Does anyone have a clue why this might be? If a good structural reason exists (which is likely to persist), it could be turned into a useful indicator.

    http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/ner/charting.aspx