ADP said the private sector added 163k jobs in July, 43k more than expected and compares with 172k in June. Of the 163k net jobs created, 148k were in services with the balance of 15k in the goods producing sector (of which 5k came from construction, 6k in mfr’g). Bottom line, while we should take note of this better than expected figure, its monthly correlation to the gov’t payroll data is very sketchy. ADP said 131k jobs private sector jobs were added in April while the gov’t said 105k were. ADP said 172k net jobs were created in June while the gov’t said it was just 84k. Over time and with a variety of revisions the two methodologies should converge but in the mean time the markets will focus on Friday’s number.

Category: Employment, MacroNotes, Think Tank

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4 Responses to “ADP job gains”

  1. Dima says:

    Still punk and still not enough

  2. VennData says:

    Your right Dim a, those jb creators have had their tax cuts for over a decade and that is obviously not the route we need to take, instead, we should pay down the debt and deficit, Ala Bill Clinton.

  3. Futuredome says:

    163 is the old 203,000. With lower trend growth, lower job growth.

  4. GDP was a robust 4.1% in December. Because TRI gauged June GDP had declined to 1.6% from May’s 1.8%, I expressed a month ago the ADP estimate was far too high. Today TRI gauges GDP fell to a 1.0% pace in July, so again I can’t support the ADP optimism and instead look forward to an 8.3% announcement by BLS on Friday.

    TRI continues to project GDP will plunge even lower thru August and September. Revenue and earnings guidance will see more slashing. The stock indices are about to get real ugly…

    TRI chart: http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm