It’s August and time to start thinking about the Presidential election though nothing really matters until after Labor Day, in our opinion, especially in a race that is so tight. The latest Gallup tracking poll of registered voters has the President at 46% and Governor Romney 45%.
Fitting. A dead heat in the hottest summer on record.
For historical context, we looked at every Presidential campaign since 1936 and the polls from Gallup interactive site on or around August 1st. We then compared them to the final margin of the victory in the popular vote in each of past nineteen Presidential elections.
There many caveats about comparing polls over the many Presidential campaigns. For example, in the days of smoke-filled rooms some of the candidates had not officially won their party’s nomination. Some polls may have sampled registered voters and some likely voters. Furthermore, the science and art of polling has evolved immensely over the past 70 years.
Nevertheless, it’s all we’ve got and we’re not writing a Ph.D. dissertation! Here’s what we found:
1) The current race appears to be one the tightest at this point in the campaign;
2) There have been only four reversals where one candidate led the other in early August and lost the popular vote (highlighted in purple in the tables): 1948, Truman and Dewey; 1960, Kennedy and Nixon; 1988, Bush 41 and Dukakis; and 2000, Bush 43 and Gore.
3) Polls are volatile moving into the fall and public opinion can break big in the last few weeks before the election. In 1980, for example, President Carter closed the gap and went ahead of then Governor Reagan in late August and held a 6 point lead at the end of October among registered voters. Reagan surged in the last few weeks taking 50.7 of the popular vote to President Carter’s 41 percent.
The upshot? Very little predictive power in the data cuz’ “this time is different”, right?
Stay tuned!
Category: Data Analysis, Politics
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Psssst: it’s the electoral college that decides.
Since it is the Electoral College that decides (hat tip to wally), its state by state polls we should be looking at. Obama is cleaning Romney’s clock in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida, all well beyond the margin of error. As they say in Brooklyn fuggedaboutit!
Corporations are people-friends.
Corporations are people, friends.
People are corporation-friends.
People are corporations, friend.
Friend, peoples are corporation.
Corporation, friends are people.
Romney needs a photo-op, maybe something to give him a more virile appearance, like him weaning a helmet & riding in a tank.
This may tell us that if you are up by 15%+ in August, you will win. If you are merely ahead, 9 times out of 12 you will win the Presidency. Small sample.
Truman and Bush, Sr. had amazing successful comebacks. Some unsuccessful comebacks were larger, but a loss is a loss.
The other interesting thing is how strong Clinton polled in August, and how lopsided polls in August were from 1964-1980.
Politics is the art of preventing people from taking part in affairs which properly concern them.
- Paul Valery
A rather over-simplified analogy… but picture an electorate all living in nice glass cubicles with no real capacity to influence policy… no real desire by any leadership that they should be butting into their business anyway… and non-stop distortion by the only two teams in this closed, self-interested political league. Oh yeah… and a media that knows that sports coverage will tickle the lizard-brain much more than serious discussion.
It’s sports!
And then once every two or four years the ‘fans’ get to push a red button or a blue button to see which team gets the latest trophy.
Actually though it doesn’t much matter. Because as the team owners know…
Its really about maintaining the profitability of the league.
The fans just pay the bills…
And ultimately those bills will be costly in much more fundamental ways than mere money.
(The political microtransaction is a fundamental of speech… a transaction never before feasible… and a neutral utility for that and other contribution catalyzes a network for citizen involvement from the smallest scale to the largest. I believe this vision is on its way to reality. )
Capability ENABLES Responsibility
http://culturalengineer.blogspot.com/2008/10/capability-enables-responsibility.html
What wally and stonedwino said: It’s the electoral college that decides and the Republicans know it hence the ongoing and increasingly strenuous voter suppression efforts in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Florida.
These suppression efforts worked in Florida in the 2000 Gore v. Bush election and Republicans have done their homework so I would guess the POTUS race (no pun intended) is closer than state-by-state polling would suggest but probably still much wider than national polling would imply.
NB: The number of actual vote fraud legal cases is so close to zero in any state that the entire “voter ID” project cannot be rationally defended in anything other than partisan terms; i.e., on a “cost benefit” basis it is a total loser which leaves a last gasp resurrection of Jim Crow the more likely explanation.
This is an amazing and befuddling race.
Both candidates are right of center, with a corporatist bent. Romney, if judged on his previous positions, might be, in his heart of hearts, as far left or even more so than Obama.
Romney’s Party leaders hate him.
He has advanced no credible agenda or plan, and has provided little or no useful information regarding the issues facing the next President. His lack of response to the question of his tax returns is snowballing into a crisis of management.
Obama, OTOH, isn’t running on hope or change, as he has proven to be interested in neither. His base is disappointed, but has only Romney as an alternative.
I think I’ll vote for the last rational man in the Congress and in accordance with my coscience: Bernie Sanders.
BR:
Will you please take me out of moderation? Thanks.
And, I forgot to add, Romney‘s only sure votes are from the hard core Republican base — those heeding Reagan’s prohibition against breaking ranks, and, those who object to Obama’s pigmentation.
Romney has now added Glassman of “Dow 36k” fame to his economic dream team. They are dreaming. Predictions of these dreamers over the past decade plus..2000, dow 36k, 2007 no banking crisis, 2008 no housing crisis or recession. Obama takes power in 09, this crews predictions shifted to sp 450, 10 yr @ 10% & inflation to zimbabwe levels because of the “islamo socialist debt threat money debasement”.
It all depends, it is hard to believe that a president with 8%+ unemployment and no plan to change things can get reelected but ya got to admit team Romney have been real idiots and I think they may pull off a lose.
just like the stock market I ain’t making any bets either way,
Jack
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Rove: Romney “close to a decision” on VP
… aka Mission, almost accomplished.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57488787-503544/rove-romney-close-to-a-decision-on-vp
Good thing Rove’s back in the hunt. Is he the one who came up with this great idea not to release Romney’s tax returns?
Nate Silver probably has the strongest model and best track record. His model says Obama has a 72% chance of winning. He predicts 302 vs 237 electoral votes and 50.8% vs 48.1% in the popular vote.
Everything else is just noise.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/
I find it interesting to see all the security measures that Tampa is having to pay for. That is taxpayers money big time.
“The plan covers air, land and sea and involves the United States Secret Service, Federal Aviation Administration, the United States Coast Guard and every state and local law enforcement agency. Areas surrounding the Tampa Bay Times Forum and the Tampa Convention Center are essentially open only to those with an approved convention credential.”
Gosh are they expecting an invasion.
A nice chart showing the electoral spread, which is significantly wider than the popular vote spread.
~~~
BR: Nice graphic. I suspect this year Florida leans GOP and Virginia and Ohio will lean Democrat
Economic policy uncertainty and Romney economists: more of the same old voodoo to improve the exploitative class’ position.
Obama no better, but the dreamers seem to be conned.
i do respect nate silver’s methodology, and he has been pretty good lately, but i also like checking in with jay cost from real clear politics. romney can’t spend most of his war chest until after the convention, he hasn’t picked a vp yet, and will get a bounce on the convention. jay believes this one is still too early too call, and thinks it is romney’s to lose. his blog post today:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-race-romneys-win_649504.html?nopager=1