The 10 yr note yield intraday was higher for the 9th day in the past 10 and the WSJ today has an article titled “Treasury’s drop as odds of Fed action go lower.” I respectively disagree. Yields started moving up the day Mario Draghi turned into the central bank version of Superman from Clark Kent as Europe stared again into the abyss. Europe has been driving the risk bus for a while and at least for now that will continue. I think the Fed’s ability to manipulate interest rates has lost its relevance at this point and whether they embark on QE or not in Sept will not be the short term driver of US yields. My 2 cents on the Sept FOMC meeting though is that they announce more QE because they don’t want to wait 2 weeks before the election at the Oct meeting and also don’t want to chance waiting until Dec because if Romney wins, the Fed will be in the political crosshairs again as Romney/Ryan have publicly stated the Fed has done enough.

Category: MacroNotes

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2 Responses to “Bond yields/FOMC will act in Sept”

  1. Mike in Nola says:

    Those who keep talking about the Fed driving treasury yields lower have it backwards; the Fed is promoting risk. Compare the 10 year yields to the Fed’s operation twist. yields plunged before it was announced because things were going to hell and people were buying safe assets. After twist was announced, yields rose. Analogous thing now: anticipation of Fed action is fueling the current stock bubble and driving up yields. If the Fed does nothing or things turn sour, yields will fall.

    Let the Greeks act up again and it will be a gift to the Treasury market.

  2. gusgus says:

    ” because if Romney wins, the Fed will be in the political crosshairs again as Romney/Ryan have publicly stated the Fed has done enough.”

    If Romney wins the more likely course of action is a flip-flop from Romney/Ryan on both fiscal and monetary policy, with tax cuts to stimulate the economy along with relaxed monetary policy coming from the Fed.