Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Draghi follows up last week’s call to arms with more color on what he’ll do next if needed and we await Spain and Italy’s SOS.
2) German July unemployment data in line with estimates.
3) Euro zone PMI services index revised up to 4 month high but remains below 50 at 47.9.
4) July Payrolls rise 163k vs est of 100k, most since Feb.
5) ISM services index ticks up to 52.6 from 52.1 but components mixed with Employment falling below 50 for 1st time this yr.
6) July retail comps rise more than expected helped by pre BTS discounting.
7) Initial Jobless Claims total 365k vs est of 370k.
8) Consumer confidence up more than 3 pts with those that plan on buying an auto within 6 mo’s rising to the most on record dating back to ’67.
9) CS May home price index rises more than expected m/o/m, although still down y/o/y.
10) US savings rate rises to 4%, highest since Aug ’11.
11) Bernanke says no to peer pressure and stands pat although I have no doubt he’ll act in Sept.

 

Negatives:

1) Manufacturing PMI’s in China, India, South Korea and Taiwan all drop.
2) US ISM remains below 50 for 2nd straight month.
3) UK PMI falls 3 pts to 45.4.
4) Final euro zone PMI falls to lowest since June ’09.
5) US unemployment rate rises to 8.3% in July from 8.2% as the household survey falls 195k.
6) REAL US consumer spending in June fell .1% coincident with rise in the savings rate.
7) June EU unemployment rate at 11.2%, matching high.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (8/3/12)”

  1. Less than 14 weeks to go and GDP has plunged from a robust 4.1% in December to a meager 1.5% in June. Eleven days before the Election, BEA should be announcing Q3 GDP of 0.5%. Four days prior, BLS is likely to announce an 8.4% Unemployment Rate and dwindling job creation. The leftist media continues to avoid reporting of plunging numbers to protect the chosen one.

    On the other side, it is improbable the Republicans in Congress will pass “final” legislation to deal with the source of the uncertainty causing this GDP pause (Sequester, Debt Ceiling & Bush-era tax cuts) ’til late enuf in the Summer as to not help the ugly Q3 number. We are watching in real-time the strategic dismantling of the celebrity President’s campaign. Stay tuned for many more revenue misses and slashing of guidance thru Aug/Sept/Oct.

    http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm

  2. denim says:

    “6) REAL US consumer spending in June fell .1% coincident with rise in the savings rate.”

    It would be nice to have the total amount of ad money spent each month to see how much correlation there is between the consumer’s spending and the adman’s “encouragement.”

  3. rktbrkr says:

    GDP and unemployment are in Romney’s favor, Romney’s tax issues and campaign are in O’B's favor. Team Mutt’s gaffes are coming fast & furious – all they need is a Palin reprise to seal the deal.

    I’m losing track – the Euro was saved twice this week right? The pace is picking up.

  4. Greg0658 says:

    #1neg Manufacturing PMI’s in _Asia all drop .. yes the xmas seavans are in crossing .. next month “ports & trans #1pos”
    ~
    fyi saw today my little-bigbox has cleared the shelves and started Halloween installations
    ~
    “the global market is $650 billion for advertising”
    Miles Nadal – The Ad Indicator CNBC Thu 02 Aug 12 06:16 AM ET
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000106169&play=1

    that figure caught me saying “wow” .. as a consumer/graphic artist ~ boo/yah
    (sorta wondered what the usa figure is – won’t bother working for it tho)

    another way of putting it / accept inflation so a colleague can work / push “buy me” for something we either must have or don’t

    inflation ? of humanity & usage of diminishing commodities to have work .. OpSys booyah

    ps – watch out for that carpal tunnel u fellows

  5. Dow says:

    Tech note – after google announced it was dumping igoogle, I migrated my rss feeds over to protopage – which I am happy with (at least so far…) One problem though, I can’t seem to get the rss feed for Big Picture to “stick” – it vanishes after I close a browser (safari, firefox, etc). It’s really bumming me out.

    Does anyone else have this problem? Suggestions for another similar service to igoogle? Thank you.

  6. Dow says:

    The leftist media continues to avoid reporting of plunging numbers to protect the chosen one.

    I guess it’s thoroughly escaped your notice that the “chosen one” is a set of twins.

  7. PeterR says:

    Does not the Knight Capital SNAFU deserve at least a mention here as a Negative? Indeed, IMO it eclipses the entire discussion of Positives vs. Negatives, as it belies systemic flaws so deep and pernicious as to evade standard rational dichotomies!

    In any event, the question remains (as many Knight employees apparently asked anon):

    “Where was the off switch?”

    http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/03/trading-program-ran-amok-with-no-off-switch/?hp

    What good is a discussion of pro’s and con’s, if the entire system is already rigged with unknown land mines and Black Swans, set for detonation by a hidden, perhaps UNKNOWN, panoply of parameters?

    A passel of poison!

  8. Biffah Bacon says:

    @FreddyNutter-there is a leftist media? In America? Point them out because I only see extreme right wing media (Fox News and the Rupertards) and the Establishment Center Right media-owned by billionaires, written by thousandaires and presented by multimillionaires.
    The Chosen One at least has the advantage of having won an election, not being the beneficiary of Fat Tony Scalia’s judicial largesse and bribes paid to Justice Thomas’ wife. Policy wise he is simply the smartest Bush kid available, complicated by his unfortunate melanin condition and the absolute loss of reason and sanity by America’s right wing extremists.