Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Initial Jobless Claims total 361k, 9k less than expected and Labor Dept says there are no special factors unlike in the previous 4 weeks. I say give it one more week to normalize.
2) June Trade Deficit almost $5b less than expected as exports rise to record high, could add up to .4 of a % pt to the Q2 GDP revision.
3) Q2 Productivity rises 1.6%, a touch above est of 1.4%.
4) July Import Prices contract for 4th month sequentially but likely bottoming with jump in CRB index lately.
5) CPI in China moderates to 1.8% y/o/y, slowest rate of gain since Jan ’10.
6) Australia reports better than expected upside to July jobs data.
7) June IP in France and UK weak but slightly better than expected.
8) Dallas Fed Pres Fisher doesn’t see need for any more QE.

Negatives:

1) Boston Fed Pres Rosengren wants an open ended money printing program.
2) The avg gallon of gasoline according to AAA rises another .08 on the week to $3.67, the highest since late May.
3) Wholesale inventories in June unexpectedly fall but because sales fall more, the inventory to sales ratio rises to most since Dec ’09.
4) Q2 unit labor costs rise 1.7% vs est of up .5% and Q1 revised sharply higher to growth of 5.6%. Previous 3 Q’s though were down.
5) China’s IP in July slows to lowest pace since May ’09, retail sales, exports, imports and bank loans also all below expectations.
6) German IP in June falls twice as much as est.
7) Italian GDP in Q2 contracts for 4th straight quarter.

Category: Markets

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One Response to “Succinct summation of week’s events (8/10/12)”

  1. Less than 13 weeks to go and TRI gauges GDP was 0.9% in July, having plunged from a robust 4.1% in December. TRI projects BEA should be announcing Q3 GDP of 0.6% (eleven days before the Election). Four days prior, BLS is likely to announce an 8.4% Unemployment Rate and dwindling job creation. Despite the TRENDLines Recession Indicator being at the worst level since the Great Recession, the leftist media has extinguished “double dip” from its current vocabulary. It continues to avoid the reporting of plunging numbers to protect the chosen one.

    On the other side, the Republicans in Congress neglect to pass “final” legislation to deal with the source of the uncertainty causing this GDP pause (Sequester, Debt Ceiling, Bush-era tax cuts & ObamaCare costs to business) to ensure their actions do not help the ugly Q3 GDP number. We are watching in real-time the strategic dismantling of the celebrity President’s campaign. Stay tuned for many more revenue misses and slashing of guidance thru Aug/Sept/Oct.

    http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm