Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) Continuing the Draghi put rally, the Spanish IBEX trades higher each day this week and closes at 4 month high. It takes the Italian MIB index with it. 2) US Retail Sales bounce back in July after previous 3 months in a row of declines.
3) Initial Jobless Claims about in line at 366k but below 370k for 2nd week and clean of July auto distortions.
4) US CPI rate of change benign in July.
5) July IP up .6% (but June revised lower) led by auto’s.
6) NAHB builder survey rises 2 pts to 37, highest since Feb ’07.
7) Multi family starts rise in July as do permits for multi and single family.
8) UoM confidence in Aug ticks up led by current conditions at best since Jan ’08.
9) India inflation less than expected, Sensex near 5 month high.

Negatives:

1) If Fed’s goal is to keep rates as low as possible, what do they do now if reason for recent jump is temporary calm in Europe? QE3 alive and well after voting member Williams says he wants it.
2) NY and Philly mfr’g indices for Aug show contraction, Philly for a 4th straight month.
3) Single family home starts down 35k in July.
4) MBA said purchase apps fall for 5th straight week to lowest since Feb.
5) Economic outlook within UoM confidence falls to lowest of the yr.
6) Inventory to sales ratio within Business Inventories rise to most since Feb ’10 due to sales drop.
7) PPI both headline and core rise above est.
8) Euro zone Q2 GDP contracts .2% q/o/q.
9) German ZEW falls to lowest of the yr.
10) Japan’s Q2 GDP rises less than est.
11) FDI in China falls for 8th month in past 9 in July.
12) AAA says gasoline price moves up another .04 to $3.72, to the highest in 3 mo’s.

Category: Markets

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

9 Responses to “Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (8/17/12)”

  1. TLH says:

    Enough already about j Corzine. If you cannot find one billion plus, you are a crook. The more the public hears WS defend him, the more alienated the public becomes.

  2. Less than 12 weeks ’til Americans go to the polls and TRI gauges GDP was 0.9% in July, having plunged from a robust 4.1% in December. TRI projects BEA should be announcing Q3 GDP of 0.4% (eleven days before the Election). Four days prior, BLS is likely to announce an 8.4% Unemployment Rate and dwindling job creation. Despite the TRENDLines Recession Indicator being at its worst level since the Great Recession, the leftist media appears to have purged “double dip” from its vocabulary. It continues to avoid the reporting of plunging numbers in order to protect “the chosen one”.

    On the other side, Republicans in Congress refuse to pass “final” legislation to address the source of the uncertainty causing this GDP pause (Sequester, Debt Ceiling, Bush-era tax cuts, payroll holiday & ObamaCare costs to business). In so doing they ensure their actions do not buoy the ugly Q3 GDP number. We are watching in real-time the strategic dismantling of the celebrity President’s campaign. Stay tuned for many more revenue misses and slashing of guidance thru Aug/Sept/Oct.

    http://trendlines.ca/free/economics/RecessionIndicatorUSA/USA-TRI.htm

  3. Futuredome says:

    lol, GDP rose in June and continued in July. Hutter, the “right wing” media creates illusions of irrevelant data for liquidation of the American body of laws.

  4. JonBonanno says:

    QE3 “alive and well” is a negative? Oh, please. At least admit that is your opinion and should not be listed above facts like NY and Philly indices contracting.

  5. A says:

    The major issue with any market data, whether from government or industry association:
    - first, is it true ? If yes, then…
    - second, after careful independent analysis and interpretation, was the original data intended to be ‘misleading’ ?

    Unfortunately, the market doesn’t seem to want to wait for the data analysis – good or bad.

    ~~~

    BR: If I start from the conclusion that something is True or False, I become biased. Instead, I try to reach my own conclusions from the data itself. I approach that in a different order — I do the original analysis first, than see what else confirms or contradicts the data. Than, I try to figure out where this data point fits into the grand cycle.

  6. Futuredome says:

    I suspect the ‘contracting’ NY and Philly is about over as well. Learn to follow capital flows people.

  7. Arequipa01 says:

    I looked for some mention of the Sentinel Management case in TPB’s archives. Not much luck.

    It seems fairly important. Here is a pdf of the recent ruling:

    dl.dropbox.com/u/32961642/SentinelRuling.pdf

    And here is a very disheartening excerpt from said ruling:

    “the district court’s finding that the bank officials were suspicious,
    as exemplified by the email change (sic) between bank officials
    over how Sentinel was able to pledge $300 million in collateral
    with only $2 million in capital, doesn’t require a finding that
    the bank’s conduct was sufficiently egregious.” [the ruling also references lying under oath by bank officials, but you know, no biggie]

    h/t jessescafeamericain and blog by Ann Barnhardt, which if you have a Catholic allergy will send you into anaphylactic shock. Ann, please ixnay on the eter’spay arquebay…

  8. mathman says:

    Following your headline post on the drought, there’s this (contributing mightily to our predicament):

    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/charting-mankinds-expressway-to-extinction.html?m=0

    Charting Mankind’s Arctic Methane Emission Exponential Expressway to Total Extinction in the Next 50 Years

    i’m sure nobody is going to take this seriously (until it’s far too late – which it already is).

  9. mathman says:

    One more and i got work to do:

    http://scienceblogs.com/notrocketscience/2008/10/05/toxoplasma-the-brain-parasite-that-influences-human-culture/

    (to start you off)

    “We like to think that we are masters of our own fates. The thought that others might be instead controlling our actions makes us uneasy. We rail against nanny states, we react badly to media hype and we are appalled at the idea of brainwashing. But words and images are not the only things that can affect our brains and thoughts. Other animals – parasites – can do this too. According to research by Kevin Lafferty from the University of California, Santa Barbara, a common brain parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, could be influencing human culture across the globe. ” (read more if interested)